13 E Pierce Ave · Smallwood, NY 12720

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily · 214 Days on market

Built 1940 Fair condition 5,000 sqft lot $129/sqft · 47% below area Est $188k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Such a cute 3 season bungalow in the pastoral Smallwood lake community. Lot's of rustic charm in this house with exposed beams, solid wood vintage front door, open rafters, rich paneling, and a large 3 season porch to savor the quiet of the community. The living room has an extra space that could be used as an office or play area. Set on a pretty corner lot. There is no HOA. Enjoy the house alone or you have the choice to join the Civic Association for membership that includes non-motor boat Mountain Lake, a swimming beach, the clubhouse, park, and a full calendar of events. Enjoy an afternoon at the new playground or playing pickleball, baseball, tennis, basketball, soccer, baseball or visiting the dog park with your 4-legged friend. If a heated pool and clubhouse with day/evening activities is your thing, you can become a member of The Club at Smallwood. Enjoy all the area has to offer including nearby Bethel Woods Center for the Arts, tons of outdoor recreation, local dining and shopping, breweries, farmer's markets, Resorts World Casino and Kartrite Indoor Water Park and Resort, to name a few things to keep you busy. As-Is Sale.

Key facts

• Rich paneling
• Open rafters
• 3 season bungalow

Tags

• 3 SEASON BUNGALOW
• EXPOSED BEAMS
• SOLID WOOD VINTAGE FRONT DOOR
• OPEN RAFTERS
• RICH PANELING
• LARGE 3 SEASON PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $497 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 3.9% in Smallwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,148 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Kenneth L Rutherford School (math 12% / reading 20%, grade F, #2,020 of 2,108 statewide, top 96%, 492 students, 81% FRL); Robert J Kaiser Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 66% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (7.1% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.52%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,434
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -47.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23 W James Ave	0.09mi	2/1.0	735 (-4%)	11mo	$120,000	$163	79
58 Woodland Way	0.38mi	1/1.0 (-1)	750 (-2%)	2mo	$135,000	$180	72
9 W Mitchell St	0.10mi	1/1.0 (-1)	822 (+7%)	12mo	$170,000	$207	69
53 Walnut St E	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	780 (+2%)	13mo	$241,000	$309	63
74 W Read Ave	0.40mi	2/2.0	828 (+8%)	7mo	$169,000	$204	58
14 Seminole Trl S	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	748 (-3%)	1mo	$344,000	$460	56
26 E Tusten	0.54mi	2/1.0	820 (+7%)	9mo	$107,500	$131	56
39 E James Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	829 (+8%)	4mo	$265,000	$320	53
51 E Oak St	0.73mi	2/1.0	806 (+5%)	10mo	$169,450	$210	49
91 W Oak St	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	676 (-12%)	11mo	$230,000	$340	47
13 Mohawk Trl	0.67mi	3/1.5 (+1)	746 (-3%)	14mo	$250,000	$335	45
28 E Sullivan Pl	0.72mi	2/1.0	700 (-9%)	12mo	$145,000	$207	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $66,936
• Equity at exit: $69,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.16×
• Total profit: $170,854
• Equity at exit: $132,367

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $248,500 ($315/sqft)
• Median days on market: 76 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -22.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 12720

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $497

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $565	-5% $531	+0% $497	+5% $463	+10% $429
Rent	-10% $379	-5% $438	+0% $497	+5% $556	+10% $615
Rate	-1.0pp $547	-0.5pp $522	base $497	+0.5pp $471	+1.0pp $445

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 E Mitchell Smallwood, NY	2.0	1.0	570	$1,500	$2.63	68d	1	0.03mi
1087 New York 17B Unit B Mongaup Valley, NY	2.0	1.0	904	$1,450	$1.60	15d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 214 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 213 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $99,000 Active 212 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $99,000 Active 211 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $99,000 Active 210 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $99,000 Active 209 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $99,000 Active 206 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $99,000 Active 205 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $99,000 Active 204 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $99,000 Active 202 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $99,000 Active 200 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $99,000 Active 199 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $99,000 Active 198 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $99,000 Active 197 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $99,000 Active 196 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $99,000 Active 193 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $99,000 Active 191 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $99,000 Active 190 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $99,000 Active 189 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $99,000 Active 188 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $99,000 Active 187 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $99,000 Active 186 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $99,000 Active 185 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $99,000 Active 184 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 182 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $99,000 Active 181 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 180 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 179 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 178 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 177 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 176 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 175 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $99,000 Active 174 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $99,000 Active 173 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $99,000 Active 172 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $99,000 Active 171 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $99,000 Active 169 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $99,000 Active 167 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $99,000 Active 166 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $99,000 Active 163 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $99,000 Active 162 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $99,000 Active 161 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    price $99,000 Active 160 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $110,000 Active 160 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $110,000 Active 158 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $110,000 Active 155 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $110,000 Active 154 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 153 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 152 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 148 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,943
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $4,666
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,120
• After-tax cash flow: $4,845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $19,200–$34,560 screening

This property requires significant repairs and updates to its exterior, roof, and foundation, as well as interior updates to flooring and appliances. The home has potential for significant value increase with these improvements.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — The siding is weathered and peeling, indicating significant damage and the need for replacement.
• Major Roof — The roof shows signs of wear, with some shingles missing or damaged, indicating the need for repair or replacement.
• Major Foundation — The foundation appears uneven and there are visible cracks and settling, indicating the need for structural repair.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Exterior siding replacement — Replacing the weathered and peeling siding will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale Roof repair/replacement — A new roof will improve the home's structural integrity and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale Foundation repair — Repairing the uneven foundation and cracks will improve the home's structural integrity and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale Painting — Painting the exterior and interior will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale Flooring replacement — Replacing the outdated flooring will improve the home's interior and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading the kitchen appliances will improve the home's functionality and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading the bathroom fixtures will improve the home's functionality and increase its resale value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Kenneth L Rutherford School F NY #2,020/2,108 Nat'l #36,039/41,679 Middle Robert J Kaiser Middle School F NY #661/729 Nat'l #11,464/14,009 High Monticello High School C NY #879/1,100 Nat'l #3,973/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

D Composite livability gradescore 54/100

Livability — Smallwood

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1148
• US rank: #23933

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smallwood, NY
• County: Sullivan · 68,974 people
• City population: 456
• Population (ZIP): 434
• Rent vs Own: 0.0% rent · 100.0% own

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Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Danish 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.11%
• Current HPI: 449.7929
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-15 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-04 Listed $110,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid