4120 La Mesa Rd

Phelan, CA 92371

$309,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Pending · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,520/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax + insurance: −$240
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $131/mo
• Annual: $1,568/yr
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.81%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $86,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $309k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (18.4% below list).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $252k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,215 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Snowline Joint Unified (rural): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #722 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Phelan Elementary (642 students, 78% FRL); Pinon Mesa Middle (788 students, 69% FRL); Serrano High (2,145 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 303 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $154k; list at $309k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $87k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 3→7/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.6% in Phelan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.