4120 La Mesa Rd · Phelan, CA 92371

$309,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · Manufactured public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1980 4.70 ac lot $192/sqft · 36% below area Est $343k · 10% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nearly five acres in Phelan with two homes on one expansive parcel, offering scale, flexibility, and long-term potential. This property speaks to those who value land, independence, and room to grow. The High Desert setting provides wide views of surrounding mountains and the quiet rhythm that defines life here, yet you remain just minutes from local restaurants, markets, and daily essentials. Victorville is about 30 minutes away, Los Angeles less than two hours, and Mountain High's snow and alpine trails are close enough for spontaneous winter mornings. Phelan's reputation for genuine people, reliable local service, and that small-town America atmosphere makes it a unique pocket of Southern California. Whether held as an investment or lived in and improved over time, this is a rare opportunity to own substantial acreage in a community that values space, nature, and authenticity. Both homes are currently occupied. Do not disturb occupants. Probate sale. Court confirmation is not required. Property is being sold as-is, where-is with no repairs, credits, or concessions of any kind. Buyer is advised to independently verify all information, including square footage, lot size, permits, zoning, usage, and condition, through personal inspection and appropriate licensed professionals prior to submitting an offer. Seller and seller's agents make no representations or warranties, expressed or implied. Available for sale as part of the same estate: 13377 Paramount Rd, 4120 La Mesa Rd, 4388 Amador Rd, 6288 Maricopa Rd, 6425 Smoke Tree Rd.

Key facts

• High desert setting
• Five acres
• Expansive parcel

Tags

• FIVE ACRES
• TWO HOMES
• EXPANSIVE PARCEL
• HIGH DESERT SETTING
• WIDE VIEWS
• SUBSTANTIAL ACREAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.6% in Phelan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,215 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Snowline Joint Unified (rural): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #722 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Phelan Elementary (642 students, 78% FRL); Pinon Mesa Middle (788 students, 69% FRL); Serrano High (2,145 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 303 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $87k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $154k; list at $309k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 3→7/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,992 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.81%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,213
• List price: $309,000
• Delta: -9.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12601 Nandina	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-10%)	1mo	$350,000	$243	47
12370 Sheep Creek Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,384 (-14%)	19mo	$250,000	$181	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $108,831
• Equity at exit: $206,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.59×
• Total profit: $310,755
• Equity at exit: $385,264

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92371

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 303
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,520 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,330/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,354

Max offer price $309,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $306	-5% $218	+0% $131	+5% $43	+10% $-44
Rent	-10% $-68	-5% $31	+0% $131	+5% $230	+10% $330
Rate	-1.0pp $286	-0.5pp $209	base $131	+0.5pp $51	+1.0pp $-31

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 1552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1552 chars)

   Nearly five acres in Phelan with two homes on one expansive parcel, offering scale, flexibility, and long-term potential. This property speaks to those who value land, independence, and room to grow. The High Desert setting provides wide views of surrounding mountains and the quiet rhythm that defines life here, yet you remain just minutes from local restaurants, markets, and daily essentials. Victorville is about 30 minutes away, Los Angeles less than two hours, and Mountain High's snow and alpine trails are close enough for spontaneous winter mornings. Phelan's reputation for genuine people, reliable local service, and that small-town America atmosphere makes it a unique pocket of Southern California. Whether held as an investment or lived in and improved over time, this is a rare opportunity to own substantial acreage in a community that values space, nature, and authenticity. Both homes are currently occupied. Do not disturb occupants. Probate sale. Court confirmation is not required. Property is being sold as-is, where-is with no repairs, credits, or concessions of any kind. Buyer is advised to independently verify all information, including square footage, lot size, permits, zoning, usage, and condition, through personal inspection and appropriate licensed professionals prior to submitting an offer. Seller and seller's agents make no representations or warranties, expressed or implied. Available for sale as part of the same estate: 13377 Paramount Rd, 4120 La Mesa Rd, 4388 Amador Rd, 6288 Maricopa Rd, 6425 Smoke Tree Rd.

2. 2026-03-02
   listed $309,000 Active 1552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1552 chars)

   Nearly five acres in Phelan with two homes on one expansive parcel, offering scale, flexibility, and long-term potential. This property speaks to those who value land, independence, and room to grow. The High Desert setting provides wide views of surrounding mountains and the quiet rhythm that defines life here, yet you remain just minutes from local restaurants, markets, and daily essentials. Victorville is about 30 minutes away, Los Angeles less than two hours, and Mountain High's snow and alpine trails are close enough for spontaneous winter mornings. Phelan's reputation for genuine people, reliable local service, and that small-town America atmosphere makes it a unique pocket of Southern California. Whether held as an investment or lived in and improved over time, this is a rare opportunity to own substantial acreage in a community that values space, nature, and authenticity. Both homes are currently occupied. Do not disturb occupants. Probate sale. Court confirmation is not required. Property is being sold as-is, where-is with no repairs, credits, or concessions of any kind. Buyer is advised to independently verify all information, including square footage, lot size, permits, zoning, usage, and condition, through personal inspection and appropriate licensed professionals prior to submitting an offer. Seller and seller's agents make no representations or warranties, expressed or implied. Available for sale as part of the same estate: 13377 Paramount Rd, 4120 La Mesa Rd, 4388 Amador Rd, 6288 Maricopa Rd, 6425 Smoke Tree Rd.

3. 2003-03-31
   soldstatus $154,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,330 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,348 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,018/yr (+$85/mo · 76.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 3 d/yr ≥98°F today · 7 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 23 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,239
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$1,330
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,419
• − Management: −$2,419
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$3,772
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$905
• After-tax cash flow: $2,474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Snowline Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636970
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,625
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #9157
• State rank: #722 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Phelan

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1215
• US rank: #26148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phelan, CA
• City population: 21,678
• Population (ZIP): 21,678

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 45% Two or more races 22% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Korean 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.62%
• Current HPI: 425.631
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+100.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — TheMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $309,000 TheMLS
• 2003-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $154,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,330 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.