200 Market St

Lebanon, OR 97355

$119,900B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 2014 · Manufactured · Pending · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,961/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $720/mo
• Annual: $8,646/yr
• Cap rate: 13.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.75%
• DSCR: 2.15
• 1% rule: 1.64%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $720 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#126 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Lebanon Community SD 9 (town): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #26 of 58 in OR (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riverview School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #218 of 412 statewide, top 58%, 401 students, 69% FRL); Seven Oak Middle School (math 23% / reading 43%, grade F, #76 of 128 statewide, top 60%, 593 students, 70% FRL); Lebanon High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #141 of 143 statewide, top 99%, 1,289 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 53% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 246 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 311 units permitted in Linn County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Linn County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 2.9% in Lebanon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.