🏷️ Likely Rental
200 Market St · Lebanon, OR
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $498 – $926
Heat risk 4/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 91°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 16 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 10/10 · Severe
- Unhealthy air days now
- 11 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 13 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Rent growth +3.6/5.0
- Livability +3.6/5.0
- Schools +3.0/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$119,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Welcome home to this well-maintained & spacious 2014 built, 1500+SF Fleetwood manufactured home located in a desirable all-age park. This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers a comfortable & functional layout with generous living spaces. Enjoy open floor plan, new interior paint, covered carport with storage shed, a deck, & a fully fenced backyard for year-round outdoor use. A great opportunity for affordable living with space to spread out. Park rent $859/month. Park approval required for all buyers.
Key facts
- Open floor plan
- Covered carport
- Storage shed
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- Other: Property is resale; Main living area reported as 1,568; Level lot with concrete road access; County-recorded building area
- HOA & community: Not a senior community; Lot rent $849 monthly
Exterior
- Parking: Driveway; 1 parking space; 1-car carport
- Utilities: Electric fuel; Public water; Public sewer
- Home design: Manufactured home in a park (residential); Single-story (main level living); Territorial view
- Construction: Built in 2014; Pillar/post/pier foundation
- Exterior features: Fenced yard; Patio; Tool shed; Yard; T-111 siding; Wood composite exterior
Interior
- Kitchen: Built-in range; Convection oven; Dishwasher; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave; Pantry
- Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level; Second bedroom; Third bedroom
- Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
- Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
- Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; No cooling
- Interior features: Ceiling fans; High-speed internet; Soaking tub; Vinyl flooring; Wall-to-wall carpet
- Laundry & utility: Electric hot water
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $720 ($9k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
- Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 2.9% in Lebanon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 71/100 on livability (#126 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities D+, commute F.
- Lebanon Community SD 9 (town): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #26 of 58 in OR (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Riverview School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #218 of 412 statewide, top 58%, 401 students, 69% FRL); Seven Oak Middle School (math 23% / reading 43%, grade F, #76 of 128 statewide, top 60%, 593 students, 70% FRL); Lebanon High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #141 of 143 statewide, top 99%, 1,289 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 53% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 246 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 311 units permitted in Linn County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Linn County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.64% ✓
- Cap rate
- 13.50%
- Cash-on-cash
- 25.75%
- DSCR
- 2.15
- GRM
- 5.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $155,334
- List price
- $119,900
- Delta
- -22.81%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200 Market St #216 | 0.16mi | 3/2.0 | 1,493 (-5%) | 2mo | $122,000 | $82 | 82 |
| 200 Market St #260 | 0.09mi | 3/2.0 | 1,697 (+8%) | 11mo | $160,000 | $94 | 72 |
| 3200 Oak Terrace Dr | 0.44mi | 3/2.0 | 1,620 (+3%) | 4mo | $280,000 | $173 | 71 |
| 3200 Oak Terrace Dr #47 | 0.44mi | 3/2.0 | 1,512 (-4%) | 4mo | $260,000 | $172 | 71 |
| 3200 Oak Ter Unit (41) | 0.44mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,620 (+3%) | 4mo | $280,000 | $173 | 66 |
| 610 Vaughan Ln #63 | 0.59mi | 3/2.0 | 1,512 (-4%) | 2mo | $157,900 | $104 | 65 |
| 610 Vaughan Ln #32 | 0.59mi | 3/2.0 | 1,512 (-4%) | 9mo | $116,000 | $77 | 59 |
| 204 Cascade Dr #35 | 0.45mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,488 (-5%) | 13mo | $45,000 | $30 | 54 |
| 610 Vaughan Ln #73 | 0.59mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,512 (-4%) | 11mo | $145,000 | $96 | 52 |
| 2796 S Main Rd #20 | 0.27mi | 3/2.0 | 1,344 (-14%) | 14mo | $52,000 | $39 | 52 |
| 610 Vaughan Ln #17 | 0.59mi | 3/2.0 | 1,404 (-10%) | 7mo | $98,500 | $70 | 49 |
| 3245 S 8th St | 0.72mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,344 (-14%) | 8mo | $230,000 | $171 | 30 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 4.55% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 21.2%
- Equity multiple
- 1.88×
- Total profit
- $29,593
- Equity at exit
- $17,877
- IRR
- 30.3%
- Equity multiple
- 3.92×
- Total profit
- $98,128
- Equity at exit
- $10,367
Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 28 Tenant-Leaning
- State Oregon
- 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 97355
- Rents YoY
- 4.5%
- Active inventory
- 246
- Price-to-rent
- 5.1×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,961 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$629
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
- Insurance
- −$50
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$412
- Net cashflow
- $720
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $803 | -5% $762 | +0% $720 | +5% $679 | +10% $638 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $566 | -5% $643 | +0% $720 | +5% $798 | +10% $875 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $781 | -0.5pp $751 | base $720 | +0.5pp $689 | +1.0pp $658 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $29,975
- Closing costs
- $3,597
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 13 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sand Ridge Ct Lebanon, OR | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1696 | $2,345 | $1.38 | 45d | 1 | 0.19mi |
| 86 Weldwood Dr Lebanon, OR | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1222 | $1,650 | $1.35 | 45d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 2656 S Main Rd #107 Lebanon, OR | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1402 | $1,950 | $1.39 | 45d | 1 | 0.26mi |
| E Airport Rd Lebanon, OR | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 993 | $1,995 | $2.01 | 45d | 14 | 0.61mi |
| 3463 Snow Bird Dr Lebanon, OR | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1621 | $2,200 | $1.36 | 45d | 1 | 0.63mi |
| 1900 S 2nd St Unit A304 Lebanon, OR | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1177 | $1,700 | $1.44 | 45d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 1900 S Second St Unit A201 Lebanon, OR | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1078 | $1,450 | $1.35 | 45d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 362 Seven Oaks Ln Lebanon, OR | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1513 | $2,250 | $1.49 | 45d | 2 | 0.79mi |
| 929 Wassom St Unit 929 Lebanon, OR | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1202 | $1,800 | $1.50 | 45d | 1 | 0.81mi |
| 1096 Fuji Ln Lebanon, OR | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1300 | $2,395 | $1.84 | 45d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 1515 David Dr Unit 1515-DA Lebanon, OR | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1104 | $1,450 | $1.31 | 45d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 2400 12th St Lebanon, OR | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0 | 926 | $1,600 | $1.73 | 45d | 6 | 1.07mi |
| 622 E Grant St Lebanon, OR | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1320 | $1,750 | $1.33 | 45d | 1 | 1.38mi |
Listing history 15 events
-
2026-06-17status $119,900 Pending 49 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $119,900 Active 49 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $119,900 Active 48 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $119,900 Active 46 DOM
-
2026-06-13pricedays on market $119,900 Active 45 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $129,900 Active 43 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $129,900 Active 42 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $129,900 Active 41 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $129,900 Active 40 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $129,900 Active 36 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $129,900 Active 35 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $129,900 Active 34 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $129,900 Active 33 DOM
-
2026-05-30days on market $129,900 Active 32 DOM
-
2026-04-28$129,900 Active 511-char remark
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 5/10 Major
- Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 10/10 Extreme 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $23,530
- − Mortgage interest
- −$6,716
- − Property taxes
- −$1,798
- − Insurance
- −$600
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,882
- − Management
- −$1,882
- − Depreciation
- −$3,488
- Taxable income
- $7,163
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,719
- After-tax cash flow
- $6,926/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This well-maintained 2014 Fleetwood manufactured home offers a spacious and functional layout with new interior paint and appliances. It is in good condition and ready for a new owner.
Value-add opportunities
- Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
- Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value
- Both replace carpet with hardwood — increases both resale and rental value
Renovation cost estimate screening
Value-add ROI direction
- Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
- Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
- Both replace carpet with hardwood — increases both resale and rental value ↑
ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Lebanon Community SD 9
- NCES district ID
- 4107380
- Math proficiency
- 27% ▼ -10.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 43% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $45,264
- Composite
- 29.83/100
- National rank
- #6418
- State rank
- #26 of 58 in OR
Livability — Lebanon
- Score
- 71/100
- State rank
- #126
- US rank
- #7209
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Lebanon, OR
- County
- Linn County · 70,700 people
- City population
- 34,292
- Metro
- Albany-Lebanon, OR
- Population (ZIP)
- 34,292
- Household income
- $68,595
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1051.0
Population outlook (Linn County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 127,026 people
- By 2030
- 129,540 · +2.0%
- By 2040
- 132,780 · +4.5%
- By 2050
- 133,614 · +5.2%
- By 2075
- 129,061 · +1.6%
- By 2100
- 112,224 · -11.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (87%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 87% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 6%
- Common ancestry
- Italian 5% Slovak 3% Portuguese 3%
- Foreign-born
- 4% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 93% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Linn
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+24.4) · D 36.2% · R 60.6% · Other 3.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.4pp · 2024: -24.4pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+24.4 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+17.2 2008: R+11.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -528.42%
- Current HPI
- 221.8977
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 4.55%
- Metro
- Albany-Lebanon, OR
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.05%
- F500 in state
- 2
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Goods | 1 | $51B |
|
||
Price history
-7.7% since first listed3 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-16 Pending — RMLS
- 2026-06-11 Price Changed $119,900 RMLS
- 2026-04-28 Listed $129,900 RMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…