3017 Mistflower Trl

Pattison, TX 77423

$289,990D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,898 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 151 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,188/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$211
• HOA: −$58
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-60/mo
• Annual: $-726/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $81,197

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-726/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (24.5% below list).
• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $219k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.4% in Pattison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.