3017 Mistflower Trl · Pattison, TX 77423

$289,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,898 sqft · SingleFamily · 148 Days on market

Built 2026 7,177 sqft lot $153/sqft · at area comps Est $302k · at est. $58/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Pearl plan is a well-designed 1-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an open-concept living and kitchen area. This floorplan features a covered patio, an oversized pantry, a kitchen island with bar seating, a large family room, and a 2-car garage. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet with ample space connected to a private bathroom. The Pearl also features a dedicated laundry room and additional closet space for storage.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• 42 inch cabinets
• Granite countertops

Tags

• MUD ROOM DROP ZONE
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• 42 INCH CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-726/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.4% in Pattison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 997 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $218,834 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,893
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: -3.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3004 Mistflower Trl	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,898 (0%)	2mo	$289,990	$153	97
3036 Mistflower Trl	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,920 (+1%)	1mo	$314,990	$164	94
3020 Bristlegrass St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,898 (0%)	2mo	$289,990	$153	92
3016 Bristlegrass St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,961 (+3%)	3mo	$324,990	$166	87
3037 Bristlegrass St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,961 (+3%)	4mo	$299,990	$153	85
3000 Sunflower Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,915 (+1%)	6mo	$276,990	$145	84
3045 Buckthorn Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	2,026 (+7%)	3mo	$328,484	$162	79
3013 Bristlegrass St	0.10mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,050 (+8%)	4mo	$334,990	$163	70
3036 Plateau Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,049 (+8%)	5mo	$299,728	$146	70
3009 El Dorado Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,084 (+10%)	2mo	$337,398	$162	69
3033 Buckthorn Dr	0.09mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,125 (+12%)	3mo	$332,006	$156	64
3061 Arrowwood Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,084 (+10%)	5mo	$330,335	$159	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-57,356
• Equity at exit: $43,238

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-80,093
• Equity at exit: $25,073

Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 997
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,188 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,077/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,265

Max offer price $279,302

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $104	-5% $22	+0% $-60	+5% $-143	+10% $-225
Rent	-10% $-233	-5% $-147	+0% $-60	+5% $26	+10% $112
Rate	-1.0pp $86	-0.5pp $13	base $-60	+0.5pp $-136	+1.0pp $-212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,498
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3005 Wood Lily Dr Brookshire, TX	4.0	3.0	1751	$1,975	$1.13	44d	1	0.39mi
3045 Wood Lily Dr Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.0	1534	$1,850	$1.21	44d	1	0.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,990 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,990 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $289,990 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,990 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $289,990 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-03-11
    price $294,990 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    The Pearl plan is a well-designed 1-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an open-concept living and kitchen area. This floorplan features a covered patio, an oversized pantry, a kitchen island with bar seating, a large family room, and a 2-car garage. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet with ample space connected to a private bathroom. The Pearl also features a dedicated laundry room and additional closet space for storage.

15. 2026-03-09
    price $294,990 681-char remark

    Show marketing remark (681 chars)

    Love where you live in Bluestem in Brookshire, TX! The Pearl floor plan is a charming 1-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This home has it all, including a mud room/drop zone and vinyl plank flooring throughout. The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42-inch cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances! Retreat to the secluded Owner's Suite featuring double sinks with granite countertops, separate tub and shower, spacious walk-in closet, and tray ceiling for some dramatic flair! Enjoy the great outdoors with a sprinkler system and a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Bluestem home, schedule a visit today!

16. 2026-01-21
    listed $299,990 Active 681-char remark

    Show marketing remark (681 chars)

    Love where you live in Bluestem in Brookshire, TX! The Pearl floor plan is a charming 1-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This home has it all, including a mud room/drop zone and vinyl plank flooring throughout. The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42-inch cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances! Retreat to the secluded Owner's Suite featuring double sinks with granite countertops, separate tub and shower, spacious walk-in closet, and tray ceiling for some dramatic flair! Enjoy the great outdoors with a sprinkler system and a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Bluestem home, schedule a visit today!

17. 2026-01-16
    listed $299,990 Active 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    The Pearl plan is a well-designed 1-story home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an open-concept living and kitchen area. This floorplan features a covered patio, an oversized pantry, a kitchen island with bar seating, a large family room, and a 2-car garage. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet with ample space connected to a private bathroom. The Pearl also features a dedicated laundry room and additional closet space for storage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,077 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,307 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,230/yr (+$353/mo · 392.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$1,077
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,101
• − Management: −$2,101
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$5,844
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,403
• After-tax cash flow: $677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pattison

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #15789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• City population: 18,767
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $294,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $294,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $299,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $299,990 Zillow

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,077 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.