5557 W Mine Trl

Phoenix, AZ 85083

$799,900D

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,863 sqft · Built 2011 · SingleFamily · Active · 423 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,048/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,195
• Tax + insurance: −$756
• HOA: −$98
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$850
• Net cashflow: $-1,851/mo
• Annual: $-22,210/yr
• Cap rate: 3.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.92%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $223,972

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $800k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $473k (40.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $405k (49.4% below list).
• It's been on market 423 days — a 12% lower offer ($704k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $405k (49.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $86k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $80k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Las Brisas Elementary School (math 57% / reading 63%, grade B-, #146 of 1,109 statewide, top 13%, 476 students, 18% FRL); Hillcrest Middle School (math 49% / reading 60%, grade B-, #15 of 218 statewide, top 7%, 899 students, 14% FRL); Sandra Day O'Connor High School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #58 of 381 statewide, top 15%, 2,567 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$137k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($149k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 423 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.