11223 Country Rd

Dunkirk, MD 20754

$479,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,317 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,517
• Tax + insurance: −$630
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$766
• Net cashflow: $-263/mo
• Annual: $-3,158/yr
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.35%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $134,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $480k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-263 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $433k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $365k (23.9% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($451k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $365k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#87 in MD, #3,323 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Calvert County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #5 of 24 in MD (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mount Harmony Elementary (math 30% / reading 38%, grade F, #159 of 860 statewide, top 19%, 609 students, 20% FRL); Northern Middle (math 19% / reading 57%, grade F, #31 of 225 statewide, top 15%, 636 students, 13% FRL); Northern High (math 65% / reading 77%, grade B+, #37 of 222 statewide, top 17%, 1,493 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Calvert County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 101 units permitted in Calvert County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $480k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.7% in Dunkirk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.