11223 Country Rd · Dunkirk, MD 20754

$479,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,317 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1973 0.97 ac lot $207/sqft · 15% below area Est $567k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is subject to all auction terms and conditions. This is FOR SALE ONLY. NOT A RENTAL. Charming single-family ranch-style home offering the ease of one-level living with incredible potential in a highly desirable, well-established area. Situated on a spacious lot with a huge yard, this property provides the perfect opportunity to create your dream home. The main level features a generously sized primary suite complete with a walk-in closet, convenient washer and dryer hookup, private deck access, and a super bath designed for comfort and relaxation. Two additional bedrooms offer ample space and flexibility. A wood-burning fireplace adds warmth and character to the living space, while the expansive three-season room off the addition provides the perfect setting for relaxing or entertaining and leads directly to the deck for seamless indoor-outdoor living. The fully finished walk-out basement expands your living space with a half bath, custom bar area, and a bonus room ideal for a home office, gym, or guest area. Additional highlights include a detached garage and storage shed, offering plenty of room for tools, hobbies, or extra storage. A pool is located on the property (condition unknown), presenting a potential future amenity. With some updates already completed and room for further improvements, this home is a fantastic opportunity for buyers looking to add value and make it their own.

Key facts

• 0.97 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $480k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-263 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $433k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $365k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $365k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.7% in Dunkirk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#87 in MD, #3,323 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Calvert County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #5 of 24 in MD (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mount Harmony Elementary (math 30% / reading 38%, grade F, #159 of 860 statewide, top 19%, 609 students, 20% FRL); Northern Middle (math 19% / reading 57%, grade F, #31 of 225 statewide, top 15%, 636 students, 13% FRL); Northern High (math 65% / reading 77%, grade B+, #37 of 222 statewide, top 17%, 1,493 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Calvert County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 101 units permitted in Calvert County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($451k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $480k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $365,000 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.35%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $567,456
• List price: $479,900
• Delta: -15.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11215 Maplewood Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	2,144 (-8%)	9mo	$564,500	$263	75
2728 Country Way	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,294 (-1%)	21mo	$678,000	$296	63
11303 Kinder Ln	0.16mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,388 (+3%)	22mo	$600,000	$251	61
11118 Country Rd	0.29mi	3/3.5	2,574 (+11%)	17mo	$550,000	$214	48
10908 Two Sisters Ln	0.60mi	3/3.0	2,580 (+11%)	23mo	$625,000	$242	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-94,574
• Equity at exit: $71,555

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-104,135
• Equity at exit: $41,493

Cash invested: $134,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20754

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,517
• Tax from tax record: −$430 /mo · $5,161/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$766
• Net cashflow: $-263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,983

Max offer price $433,413

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9	-5% $-127	+0% $-263	+5% $-399	+10% $-535
Rent	-10% $-552	-5% $-407	+0% $-263	+5% $-119	+10% $25
Rate	-1.0pp $-21	-0.5pp $-141	base $-263	+0.5pp $-388	+1.0pp $-514

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,975
• Closing costs: $14,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11717 Rivershore Dr Dunkirk, MD	3.0	2.5	2536	$3,650	$1.44	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $479,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $479,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $479,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $479,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $479,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $479,900 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $479,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $479,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $479,900 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $479,900 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $479,900 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $479,900 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $479,900 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $479,900 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    listed $479,900 Active 1423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1423 chars)

    This property is subject to all auction terms and conditions. This is FOR SALE ONLY. NOT A RENTAL. Charming single-family ranch-style home offering the ease of one-level living with incredible potential in a highly desirable, well-established area. Situated on a spacious lot with a huge yard, this property provides the perfect opportunity to create your dream home. The main level features a generously sized primary suite complete with a walk-in closet, convenient washer and dryer hookup, private deck access, and a super bath designed for comfort and relaxation. Two additional bedrooms offer ample space and flexibility. A wood-burning fireplace adds warmth and character to the living space, while the expansive three-season room off the addition provides the perfect setting for relaxing or entertaining and leads directly to the deck for seamless indoor-outdoor living. The fully finished walk-out basement expands your living space with a half bath, custom bar area, and a bonus room ideal for a home office, gym, or guest area. Additional highlights include a detached garage and storage shed, offering plenty of room for tools, hobbies, or extra storage. A pool is located on the property (condition unknown), presenting a potential future amenity. With some updates already completed and room for further improvements, this home is a fantastic opportunity for buyers looking to add value and make it their own.

16. 2002-09-04
    soldstatus $265,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,161 · $430/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,196 · $433/mo
• Expected delta: +$35/yr (+$3/mo · 0.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,882
• − Property taxes: −$5,161
• − Insurance: −$2,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,504
• − Management: −$3,504
• − Depreciation: −$13,961
• Taxable loss: −$11,611
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,787
• After-tax cash flow: $-371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calvert County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400150
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $94,392
• Composite: 33.27/100
• National rank: #5511
• State rank: #5 of 24 in MD

Livability — Dunkirk

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #87
• US rank: #3323

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunkirk, MD
• City population: 7,512
• Population (ZIP): 7,512

Population outlook (Calvert County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,825 people
• By 2030: 96,197 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 96,954 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 94,628 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 91,576 · -3.4%
• By 2100: 83,431 · -12.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 8% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calvert

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.5% · R 54.5% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+5.6 2016: R+18.4 2012: R+8.2 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.27%
• Current HPI: 265.9787
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+81.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $479,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,161 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.