649 Ponderosa Dr

Onalaska, TX 77360

$79,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 2018 · Land · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,169/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$6
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $365/mo
• Annual: $4,383/yr
• Cap rate: 11.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.59%
• DSCR: 1.87
• 1% rule: 1.46%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $66 of equity ($552 loan paydown + $-486 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,055 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Onalaska ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Onalaska El (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 712 students, 70% FRL); Onalaska Jr/Sr High (math 48% / reading 55%, grade D+, #478 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 527 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 353 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 2.8% in Onalaska — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.