649 Ponderosa Dr · Onalaska, TX 77360

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Land · 26 Days on market

Built 2018 7,548 sqft lot $6/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy lake access in this charming home located in a Lake Front Community near Lake Livingston. This MOVE IN READY property features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, open concept living area, and a functional floor plan. With a fully fenced yard, covered front porch, and all appliances included, this home is perfect for easy living. Residents also have access to a community boat ramp and public utilities. Don't miss out on this opportunity, schedule your personal showing today.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Community boat ramp
• Lake access

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• LAKE FRONT COMMUNITY
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• COMMUNITY BOAT RAMP
• PUBLIC UTILITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Has additional parcel(s)
• HOA & community: Ponderosa Ridge POA; Annual association fee of $75 (covers common areas)

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2018; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Subdivision setting; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 13); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combined; Kitchen and dining area combined; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 2.8% in Onalaska — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,055 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Onalaska ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Onalaska El (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 712 students, 70% FRL); Onalaska Jr/Sr High (math 48% / reading 55%, grade D+, #478 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 527 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 353 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $66 of equity ($552 loan paydown + $-486 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,701 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.59%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $18,688
• Equity at exit: $20,799

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $54,313
• Equity at exit: $23,156

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77360

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,169 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $707

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $420	-5% $393	+0% $365	+5% $338	+10% $310
Rent	-10% $273	-5% $319	+0% $365	+5% $411	+10% $458
Rate	-1.0pp $405	-0.5pp $386	base $365	+0.5pp $345	+1.0pp $323

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
132 Broken Arrow Onalaska, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	45d	1	1.24mi
120 Farm to Market Road 356 Unit 4 Onalaska, TX	2.0	1.0	754	$875	$1.16	45d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,900 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $79,900 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 4 DOM
19. 2026-05-17
    historical
20. 2026-03-27
    price $89,900
21. 2026-02-15
    price $94,900
22. 2025-11-17
    listed $99,500 Active
23. 2021-01-25
    historical
24. 2020-11-25
    listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,122
• − Management: −$1,122
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $3,312
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$795
• After-tax cash flow: $3,588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onalaska ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833690
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,882
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3616
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Onalaska

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1055
• US rank: #18716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Onalaska, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,130

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Current HPI: 150.9486
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $79,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $89,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-15 Price Changed $94,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $99,500 HARMLS
• 2021-01-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-11-25 Listed $79,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $33 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.