293 Sturtevant Hill Rd

Winthrop, ME 04355

$535,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,818/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,806
• Tax + insurance: −$892
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $-1,471/mo
• Annual: $-17,650/yr
• Cap rate: 2.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.78%
• DSCR: 0.48
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $149,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $535k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $322k (39.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (47.3% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($527k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $282k (47.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $57k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#76 in ME) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• RSU 38 (rural): math 89% / reading 89% proficiency, ranked #27 of 112 in ME (top 24%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Maranacook Community Middle Sch (math 88% / reading 89%, grade A+, #23 of 85 statewide, top 30%, 303 students, 21% FRL); Maranacook Community High Sch (math 98% / reading 98%, grade A+, #1 of 108 statewide, top 9%, 355 students, 11% FRL).
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Kennebec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kennebec County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$92k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 2.2% in Winthrop — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.