293 Sturtevant Hill Rd · Winthrop, ME 04355

$535,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 2023 4.90 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

OPEN HOUSE SUNDAY June 7 10 am - NOON - READFIELD - Built in 2023, this exceptional 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch showcases outstanding attention to detail and quality construction throughout. Designed for comfortable one-level living, the spacious floor plan features a beautiful primary suite complete with a luxurious soaking tub, custom tile shower, and ample closet space. The bright and inviting living areas offer stunning views and a seamless flow for everyday living and entertaining. The attached heated 2-car garage provides convenience, while the additional 16' x 24' barn and 10' x 16' shed excellent storage, hobby, or workshop space. Set in a desirable location with beautiful views and roo

Key facts

• Shed
• Barn
• Soaking tub

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE
• SOAKING TUB
• CUSTOM TILE SHOWER
• ATTACHED HEATED GARAGE
• BARN
• SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with direct entry to living area; Gravel parking offering 5–10 additional spaces; Inside entrance
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Electric with circuit breakers and generator hookup; Heat pump water heater
• Home design: Single-family residence; Built in 2023
• Construction: Wood frame construction with vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Approximately 1,500 sq ft of above-grade finished living area
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Barn(s); Rural, wooded lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 — First floor; Bedroom 2 — First floor; Bedroom 3 — First floor
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating and cooling; Wood stove
• Interior features: First-floor primary bedroom with private bath; Primary bedroom with bath; Bathtub; One-floor living; Total of 6 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $535k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $322k (39.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (47.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (47.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 2.2% in Winthrop — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#76 in ME) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• RSU 38 (rural): math 89% / reading 89% proficiency, ranked #27 of 112 in ME (top 24%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Maranacook Community Middle Sch (math 88% / reading 89%, grade A+, #23 of 85 statewide, top 30%, 303 students, 21% FRL); Maranacook Community High Sch (math 98% / reading 98%, grade A+, #1 of 108 statewide, top 9%, 355 students, 11% FRL).
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Kennebec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $57k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kennebec County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$92k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($527k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $281,828 (47.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.78%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 15.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,500
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Russell St	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,442 (-4%)	3mo	$275,000	$191	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $197,740
• Equity at exit: $481,970

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.38×
• Total profit: $656,064
• Equity at exit: $1,039,387

Cash invested: $149,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04355

• Home prices YoY: 19.1%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,818 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,806
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$669 /mo · $8,025/yr
• Insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $-1,471

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,680

Max offer price $322,170

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,101	-5% $-1,286	+0% $-1,471	+5% $-1,656	+10% $-1,841
Rent	-10% $-1,693	-5% $-1,582	+0% $-1,471	+5% $-1,360	+10% $-1,248
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,201	-0.5pp $-1,335	base $-1,471	+0.5pp $-1,609	+1.0pp $-1,750

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $133,750
• Closing costs: $16,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $535,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $535,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $535,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $535,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $535,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $535,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $535,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $535,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $535,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $535,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,968
• − Property taxes: −$8,025
• − Insurance: −$2,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,706
• − Management: −$2,706
• − Depreciation: −$15,564
• Taxable loss: −$27,824
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,678
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 38
• NCES district ID: 2314788
• Math proficiency: 89% ▲ 54.00%
• Reading proficiency: 89% ▲ 29.00%
• Median HH income: $63,163
• Composite: 76.39/100
• National rank: #107
• State rank: #27 of 112 in ME

Livability — Winthrop

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #8395

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,153
• Population (ZIP): 2,628

Population outlook (Kennebec County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 115,421 people
• By 2030: 111,852 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 103,757 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 95,710 · -17.1%
• By 2075: 78,172 · -32.3%
• By 2100: 59,500 · -48.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 6% Serbian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kennebec

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 50.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: 14.8pp · 2024: -2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.8 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+13.5 2008: D+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 65.62%
• Current HPI: 408.9683
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $535,000 MREIS