2341 Lonnie Cir S

Hillsborough, NC 27278

$165,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Active · 216 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,927/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $477/mo
• Annual: $5,729/yr
• Cap rate: 9.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.40%
• DSCR: 1.55
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $477 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#14 in NC, #1,408 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F.
• Orange County Schools (rural): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #108 of 178 in NC (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Hope Elementary (math 24% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,093 of 1,410 statewide, top 78%, 548 students, 73% FRL); A L Stanback Middle (math 27% / reading 39%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 646 students, 59% FRL); Cedar Ridge High (math 77% / reading 62%, grade B, #121 of 535 statewide, top 24%, 1,104 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 267 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 375 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.8% in Hillsborough — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.