2341 Lonnie Cir S · Hillsborough, NC 27278

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 213 Days on market

Built 1976 0.46 ac lot Est $304k · 46% under ↓ 10% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special! This 1.5 story 3 BR/1BA home is being sold ''as is'' and needs lots of TLC! Downstairs features the primary BR, living area, kitchen and informal eating area. Upstairs you will find 2 more bedrooms, with one of them including a balcony. The full bathroom is located mid level. Convenient to shopping at Hampton Pointe, downtown Hillsborough, Durham, Chapel Hill, and RTP. Recent septic repairs completed April, 2025. List agent is part of the ownership group.

Key facts

• Informal eating area
• Kitchen
• Balcony

Tags

• PRIMARY BR
• LIVING AREA
• KITCHEN
• INFORMAL EATING AREA
• BALCONY
• FULL BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,170; Property located in Orange County, postal code 27278
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: One and one-half levels; Site-built house; Fixer condition; Lap siding
• Construction: Lap siding exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Balcony; Lot about 0.46 acre; Public maintained road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (1 on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Carpet and linoleum flooring; Balcony

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $477 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.8% in Hillsborough — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#14 in NC, #1,408 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F.
• Orange County Schools (rural): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #108 of 178 in NC (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Hope Elementary (math 24% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,093 of 1,410 statewide, top 78%, 548 students, 73% FRL); A L Stanback Middle (math 27% / reading 39%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 646 students, 59% FRL); Cedar Ridge High (math 77% / reading 62%, grade B, #121 of 535 statewide, top 24%, 1,104 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 260 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 375 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.40%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $304,200
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2324 Lonnie Cir	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,277 (+9%)	7mo	$220,000	$172	75
2419 George Anderson Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,124 (-4%)	13mo	$323,000	$287	62
1100 Walter Clark Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,314 (+12%)	3mo	$286,000	$218	58
2410 Wade Hampton Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,313 (+12%)	10mo	$350,000	$267	55
1016 Alexander Stewart Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,231 (+5%)	18mo	$248,900	$202	53
1103 Water Oak Ct	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,060 (-9%)	15mo	$275,833	$260	50
1027 Alexander Stewart Dr	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,050 (-10%)	8mo	$283,071	$270	50
1914 Adams Pl	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,060 (-9%)	7mo	$250,000	$236	47
2407 Charlie Tew Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,041 (-11%)	22mo	$300,000	$288	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-941
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $20,304
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27278

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,927 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,331/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $477

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,323

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $571	-5% $524	+0% $477	+5% $431	+10% $384
Rent	-10% $325	-5% $401	+0% $477	+5% $554	+10% $630
Rate	-1.0pp $561	-0.5pp $519	base $477	+0.5pp $435	+1.0pp $391

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2301 Wade Hampton Rd Hillsborough, NC	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,000	$1.60	25d	1	0.30mi
1900 Old NC 10 Hillsborough, NC	2.0	2.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	25d	1	0.51mi
100 Waterstone Park Cir Hillsborough, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	928	$2,096	$2.26	22d	5	1.02mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 213 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 212 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 211 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 210 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 208 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 207 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 205 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 204 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 203 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 202 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 198 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    price $165,000 Active 197 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 197 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 196 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 195 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $180,000 Active 194 DOM
17. 2026-03-18
    price $180,000
18. 2026-01-12
    price $190,000
19. 2025-11-17
    listed $200,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,331 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,353 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$22/yr (+$2/mo · 1.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,331
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,850
• − Management: −$1,850
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $3,226
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$774
• After-tax cash flow: $4,955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703480
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,908
• Composite: 34.8/100
• National rank: #5109
• State rank: #108 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hillsborough

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #1408

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 151,666 people
• City population: 27,925
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• Population (ZIP): 27,925
• Household income: $105,887
• Rent vs Own: 22.4% rent · 77.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 637.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,781 people
• By 2030: 168,367 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 186,192 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 203,801 · +28.4%
• By 2075: 249,160 · +56.9%
• By 2100: 285,614 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.1) · D 74.9% · R 23.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.3pp toward D · 2008: 44.8pp · 2024: 51.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.1 2020: D+51.1 2016: D+51.0 2012: D+42.2 2008: D+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.84%
• Current HPI: 234.5809
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.58%
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $180,000 TMLS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $190,000 TMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $200,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,331 · +18.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.