31-22 Neptune Ave

New York, NY 11224

$670,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 250 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,796/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,514
• Tax + insurance: −$1,107
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,007
• Net cashflow: $-832/mo
• Annual: $-9,981/yr
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.59%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $187,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $670k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-832 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $523k (21.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $480k (28.4% below list).
• It's been on market 250 days — a 12% lower offer ($590k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $480k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Ps 225 Eileen E Zaglin (The) (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 963 students, 84% FRL); Is 98 Bay Academy (math 96% / reading 96%, grade A+, #2 of 729 statewide, top 0%, 1,488 students, 63% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$61k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,796/mo this rent would consume 132% of the median local household income ($44k/yr) (locally 4426% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 250 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?