31-22 Neptune Ave · New York, NY 11224

$670,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 249 Days on market

Built 1985 1,827 sqft lot Est $740k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Colonial Style Home. This Home Features 3 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, Formal Dining Room, & Eat In Kitchen. Centrally Located To All. Don't Miss This Opportunity!

Key facts

• 1,827 sq ft lot
• Built 1985
• Listed 249 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; No carport
• Utilities: Sewer: Other; Utilities: See remarks
• Home design: Single family residence; Two-story
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located across two levels
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Natural gas heating; No cooling
• Interior features: First-floor full bathroom; Formal dining room; Two levels; Six total rooms; No basement; No attic
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $670k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-832 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $523k (21.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $480k (28.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $480k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Ps 225 Eileen E Zaglin (The) (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 963 students, 84% FRL); Is 98 Bay Academy (math 96% / reading 96%, grade A+, #2 of 729 statewide, top 0%, 1,488 students, 63% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,796/mo this rent would consume 132% of the median local household income ($44k/yr) (locally 4426% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$61k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 249 days — a 12% lower offer ($590k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $479,612 (28.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 249 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.59%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $740,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3114 Neptune Ave	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,520 (0%)	10mo	$585,000	$385	92
2878 We 31 St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,520 (0%)	9mo	$670,000	$441	86
2842 W 27th St	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,460 (-4%)	1mo	$735,000	$503	79
3215 Mermaid Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+10%)	7mo	$703,000	$418	70
2858 W 35th St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,445 (-5%)	17mo	$703,000	$487	70
2836 W 29th St	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,344 (-12%)	3mo	$653,900	$487	70
2813 W 30th St	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,344 (-12%)	7mo	$665,000	$495	68
3912 Lyme Ave	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,621 (+7%)	1mo	$870,000	$537	61
3226 Mermaid Ave	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,680 (+10%)	16mo	$655,000	$390	59
2885 W 23rd St	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,356 (-11%)	0mo	$683,000	$504	58
2868 W 25th St	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,344 (-12%)	10mo	$658,000	$490	56
4469 Surf Ave	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,360 (-10%)	14mo	$500,000	$368	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.98% appreciation · 7.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $121,061
• Equity at exit: $378,948

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $459,045
• Equity at exit: $653,407

Cash invested: $187,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11224

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,796 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,514
• Tax from tax record: −$401 /mo · $4,818/yr
• Insurance: −$279
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,007
• Net cashflow: $-832

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,849

Max offer price $523,061

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-453	-5% $-642	+0% $-832	+5% $-1,021	+10% $-1,211
Rent	-10% $-1,211	-5% $-1,021	+0% $-832	+5% $-642	+10% $-453
Rate	-1.0pp $-494	-0.5pp $-661	base $-832	+0.5pp $-1,005	+1.0pp $-1,182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $167,500
• Closing costs: $20,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2971 Shell Rd Unit 602 Brooklyn, NY	3.0	2.0	1301	$5,299	$4.07	26d	1	1.20mi
2957 Shell Rd Brooklyn, NY	3.0	2.0	1292	$5,550	$4.30	26d	1	1.20mi
532 Neptune Ave Brooklyn, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	948	$5,725	$6.04	1d	8	1.25mi
187 Bay 31st St #1 Brooklyn, NY	3.0	3.0	1800	$5,200	$2.89	21d	1	1.42mi
8642 26th Ave Unit 3 Brooklyn, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$3,100	$2.82	17d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $670,000 Active 249 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $670,000 Active 246 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $670,000 Active 245 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $670,000 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $670,000 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $670,000 Active 237 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $670,000 Active 236 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $670,000 Active 231 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $670,000 Active 229 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $670,000 Active 228 DOM
11. 2025-10-15
    listed $670,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Colonial Style Home. This Home Features 3 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, Formal Dining Room, & Eat In Kitchen. Centrally Located To All. Don't Miss This Opportunity!

12. 2025-10-15
    listed $670,000 Active 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Colonial Style Home. This Home Features 3 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, Formal Dining Room, & Eat In Kitchen. Centrally Located To All. Don't Miss This Opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,818 · $401/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,070 · $673/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,253/yr (+$271/mo · 67.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,553
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,530
• − Property taxes: −$4,818
• − Insurance: −$8,468
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,604
• − Management: −$4,604
• − Depreciation: −$19,491
• Taxable loss: −$21,962
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,271
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Kings County · 2,614,986 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 50,822
• Household income: $43,648
• Rent vs Own: 72.7% rent · 27.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 4426.0

Population outlook (Kings County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,847,441 people
• By 2030: 2,937,006 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 3,095,491 · +8.7%
• By 2050: 3,228,968 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 3,321,723 · +16.7%
• By 2100: 3,111,387 · +9.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 19% Asian 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 10% Subsaharan African 7% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 48% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 32% Spanish 11% Chinese 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Kings

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.0) · D 72.0% · R 28.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 59.4pp · 2024: 44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.0 2020: D+54.8 2016: D+61.8 2012: D+63.9 2008: D+59.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.98%
• Current HPI: 505.1405
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.03%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-15 Listed $670,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Listed $670,000 RLS at REBNY

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,818 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.