583 Bayberry Walk

Ocean Beach, NY 11770

$1,200,000C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,709/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,293
• Tax + insurance: −$1,216
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,039
• Net cashflow: $162/mo
• Annual: $1,940/yr
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.22%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $336,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.20M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $971k (19.1% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $971k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $128k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $120k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,163 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Fire Island Union Free School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 90% proficiency, ranked #44 of 590 in NY (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Woodhull School (math 75% / reading 90%, grade A+, #133 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 34 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $260k; list at $1.20M implies a 362% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $336k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$206k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.