583 Bayberry Walk · Ocean Beach, NY 11770

$1,200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1983 3,920 sqft lot $600/sqft · 47% below area Est $2258k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Introducing “The Round House” — a truly one-of-a-kind architectural beach retreat in the heart of Ocean Beach. Moments from both the bay and the ocean, this striking two-story circular residence spans approximately 2,000 square feet and blends modern design, relaxed coastal living, and exceptional rental potential into one unforgettable property. Defined by its rare round design and light-filled interiors, the home offers a layout that is both functional and distinctive. The first floor features three bedrooms, a full bath, a home office, laundry area, and a spacious recreation room ideal for guests, additional living space, or effortless summer entertaining. The second fl

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Walk-in closet
• 3,920 sq ft lot

Tags

• TWO-STORY CIRCULAR RESIDENCE
• LIGHT-FILLED INTERIORS
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EXPANSIVE OUTDOOR DECKING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No carport; No designated parking features
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront; No additional parcels

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances: Other
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (includes primary bathroom and walk-in closet)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Primary bathroom; Walk-in closets; Bi-level layout; 11 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.20M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $971k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $971k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,163 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Fire Island Union Free School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 90% proficiency, ranked #44 of 590 in NY (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Woodhull School (math 75% / reading 90%, grade A+, #133 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 34 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $128k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $120k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $336k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$206k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $260k; list at $1.20M implies a 362% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $970,937 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.22%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,258,038
• List price: $1,200,000
• Delta: -46.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
319 Wilmot Rd	0.29mi	4/2.5	1,982 (-1%)	3mo	$2,800,000	$1,413	80
212 Wilmot Rd	0.19mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,000 (0%)	7mo	$2,100,000	$1,050	78
37 Duneway Ave	0.24mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,951 (-2%)	4mo	$1,405,000	$720	73
976 Surfview Walk	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,757 (-12%)	7mo	$1,581,250	$900	70
220 Cottage Walk	0.11mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,169 (+8%)	8mo	$2,450,000	$1,130	65
657 Ocean Breeze	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,800 (-10%)	21mo	$1,550,000	$861	62
100 Clipper	0.32mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,176 (+9%)	9mo	$1,455,000	$669	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $663,511
• Equity at exit: $1,081,055

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.79×
• Total profit: $1,945,168
• Equity at exit: $2,331,336

Cash invested: $336,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11770

• Home prices YoY: 13.7%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,709 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,293
• Tax from tax record: −$255 /mo · $3,065/yr
• Insurance: −$500
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,039
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,505

Max offer price $1,200,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $841	-5% $501	+0% $162	+5% $-178	+10% $-518
Rent	-10% $-605	-5% $-222	+0% $162	+5% $545	+10% $929
Rate	-1.0pp $766	-0.5pp $467	base $162	+0.5pp $-149	+1.0pp $-466

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $300,000
• Closing costs: $36,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
437 Dehnhoff Walk Ocean Beach, NY	4.0	2.0	1496	$6,000	$4.01	45d	1	0.07mi
850 Evergreen Walk Ocean Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	1610	$5,000	$3.11	45d	1	0.10mi
55 Ocean Rd Ocean Beach, NY	5.0	3.0	1577	$7,500	$4.76	20d	1	0.14mi
112 Ocean Rd Ocean Beach, NY	4.0	2.0	1560	$13,000	$8.33	45d	1	0.16mi
224 Wilmot Rd Ocean Beach, NY	5.0	2.5	2180	$14,000	$6.42	45d	1	0.18mi
7 Atlantic Ave East Islip, NY	5.0	3.0	2100	$10,950	$5.21	45d	1	0.21mi
43 Crescent Ave Ocean Beach, NY	4.0	2.5	1400	$8,500	$6.07	17d	1	0.21mi
290 Wilmot Rd Ocean Beach, NY	5.0	2.0	1800	$12,500	$6.94	18d	1	0.22mi
294 Wilmot Rd Ocean Beach, NY	5.0	2.5	1852	$12,500	$6.75	20d	1	0.23mi
319 Wilmot Rd Ocean Beach, NY	4.0	2.5	2089	$14,000	$6.70	23d	1	0.31mi
100 Clipper Roadway Ocean Beach, NY	5.0	2.0	2146	$8,500	$3.96	45d	1	0.32mi
35 Bay Shore, NY	5.0	3.0	2185	$12,000	$5.49	45d	1	0.35mi
54 Thompson Ave Ocean Beach, NY	5.0	2.0	1680	$8,500	$5.06	45d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $1,200,000 Active 1395-char remark
2. 1999-12-21
   soldstatus $260,000
3. 1997-12-10
   soldstatus $172,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,065 · $255/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,672 · $973/mo
• Expected delta: +$8,607/yr (+$717/mo · 280.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $116,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$67,219
• − Property taxes: −$3,065
• − Insurance: −$11,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,321
• − Management: −$9,321
• − Depreciation: −$34,909
• Taxable loss: −$18,847
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,523
• After-tax cash flow: $6,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fire Island Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621540
• Math proficiency: 75% ▲ 25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 90% ▲ 40.00%
• Median HH income: $69,449
• Composite: 71.53/100
• National rank: #222
• State rank: #44 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ocean Beach

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1163
• US rank: #25096

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean Beach, NY
• Population (ZIP): 124

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (52%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 48% Two or more races 27%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 15% Dominican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 56% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.28%
• Current HPI: 575.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+595.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $1,200,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 1997-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $172,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2017): $3,065 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.