638 S 5th St

Vandalia, IL 62471

$99,000C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Built 1886 · Other · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,127/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $261/mo
• Annual: $3,135/yr
• Cap rate: 9.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.31%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#348 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Vandalia CUSD 203 (town): math 17% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #414 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Vandalia Elementary School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #658 of 2,056 statewide, top 35%, 542 students, 0% FRL); Vandalia Junior High School (math 12% / reading 26%, grade F, #436 of 665 statewide, top 66%, 511 students, 0% FRL); Vandalia Community High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 408 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 51% district-wide (51 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1886 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP.
• Fayette County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $99k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.9% in Vandalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1886 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.