1600 Plan

Bellemont, AZ 86015

$439,950C-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 380 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,677/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax + insurance: −$733
• HOA: −$106
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$982
• Net cashflow: $549/mo
• Annual: $6,585/yr
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.35%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $123,186

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $440k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $549 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $440k).
• It's been on market 380 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $387k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Manuel Demiguel Elementary School (math 39% / reading 55%, grade D-, #308 of 1,109 statewide, top 29%, 579 students, 19% FRL); Mount Elden Middle School (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #134 of 218 statewide, top 63%, 757 students, 51% FRL); Flagstaff High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #154 of 381 statewide, top 53%, 1,620 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 380 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major: paint — Peeling and chipping
• Major: roof — No visible damage, but not inspected
• Major: flooring — No visible flooring, but not inspected
• Major: interior walls — No visible interior, but not inspected
• Major: systems — No visible systems, but not inspected