1600 Plan · Bellemont, AZ 86015

$439,950

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · Townhouse · 380 Days on market

Poor condition $275/sqft · at area comps Est $445k · at est. $106/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home features an open concept 1st floor great room. All 3 bedrooms and a pocket loft are on the 2nd floor. In the front of the home there is a gated yard that leads to the front door with an oversize 2 car garage in the back of the home.

Key facts

• Oversize garage
• Open concept
• Gated yard

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• GATED YARD
• OVERSIZE GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $440k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $549 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $440k).
• Recommended offer: $387k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Manuel Demiguel Elementary School (math 39% / reading 55%, grade D-, #308 of 1,109 statewide, top 29%, 579 students, 19% FRL); Mount Elden Middle School (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #134 of 218 statewide, top 63%, 757 students, 51% FRL); Flagstaff High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #154 of 381 statewide, top 53%, 1,620 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 380 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $387,156 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 380 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.35%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $444,722
• List price: $439,950
• Delta: -1.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12105 Bliss Ave	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,600 (0%)	4mo	$449,950	$281	96
12101 Bliss Ave	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,600 (0%)	6mo	$445,000	$278	94
12189 Bliss Ave	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,600 (0%)	6mo	$450,000	$281	94
12266 Curtis Ct	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,600 (0%)	1mo	$463,000	$289	93
12098 Bliss Ave	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,686 (+5%)	1mo	$449,950	$267	90
12207 Curtis Ct	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,600 (0%)	10mo	$465,000	$291	88
12296 Curtis Ct	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,600 (0%)	9mo	$440,000	$275	85
12103 Bliss Ave	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,686 (+5%)	8mo	$445,370	$264	83
12094 Bliss Ave	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,818 (+14%)	1mo	$499,950	$275	76
12107 Bliss Ave	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,818 (+14%)	7mo	$505,000	$278	70
12245 Solid Rock Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,818 (+14%)	6mo	$499,500	$275	68
12262 Curtis Ct	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,818 (+14%)	8mo	$510,000	$281	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-34,532
• Equity at exit: $67,377

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $16,908
• Equity at exit: $41,102

Cash invested: $123,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86015

• Home prices YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,677 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$550 /mo · $6,599/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$106
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$982
• Net cashflow: $549

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,983

Max offer price $439,950

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $853	-5% $701	+0% $549	+5% $397	+10% $245
Rent	-10% $179	-5% $364	+0% $549	+5% $734	+10% $918
Rate	-1.0pp $770	-0.5pp $661	base $549	+0.5pp $435	+1.0pp $319

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,988
• Closing costs: $13,198
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $106 · $1,272/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $439,950 Active 380 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $439,950 Active 378 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $439,950 Active 377 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $439,950 Active 376 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $439,950 Active 375 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $439,950 Active 374 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $439,950 Active 372 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $439,950 Active 371 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $439,950 Active 369 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $439,950 Active 368 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $439,950 Active 367 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $439,950 Active 366 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $439,950 Active 363 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $439,950 Active 362 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $439,950 Active 361 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $439,950 Active 360 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $439,950 Active 359 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $439,950 Active 358 DOM
19. 2026-03-02
    price $439,950 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    This home features an open concept 1st floor great room. All 3 bedrooms and a pocket loft are on the 2nd floor. In the front of the home there is a gated yard that leads to the front door with an oversize 2 car garage in the back of the home.

20. 2025-11-26
    price $449,950 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    This home features an open concept 1st floor great room. All 3 bedrooms and a pocket loft are on the 2nd floor. In the front of the home there is a gated yard that leads to the front door with an oversize 2 car garage in the back of the home.

21. 2025-08-08
    price $459,950 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    This home features an open concept 1st floor great room. All 3 bedrooms and a pocket loft are on the 2nd floor. In the front of the home there is a gated yard that leads to the front door with an oversize 2 car garage in the back of the home.

22. 2025-06-10
    price $474,950 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    This home features an open concept 1st floor great room. All 3 bedrooms and a pocket loft are on the 2nd floor. In the front of the home there is a gated yard that leads to the front door with an oversize 2 car garage in the back of the home.

23. 2025-06-07
    listed $479,950 Active 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    This home features an open concept 1st floor great room. All 3 bedrooms and a pocket loft are on the 2nd floor. In the front of the home there is a gated yard that leads to the front door with an oversize 2 car garage in the back of the home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,644
• − Property taxes: −$6,599
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,490
• − Management: −$4,490
• − HOA: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$12,799
• Taxable loss: −$365
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$88
• After-tax cash flow: $6,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This townhouse requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including exterior painting, roof inspection, and flooring replacement, to improve its condition and resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major paint — Peeling and chipping
• Major roof — No visible damage, but not inspected
• Major flooring — No visible flooring, but not inspected
• Major interior walls — No visible interior, but not inspected
• Major systems — No visible systems, but not inspected

Value-add opportunities

• Resale exterior painting — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal
• Resale roof inspection and repair — A new roof can add value and prevent future costly repairs
• Resale interior painting — Fresh paint inside can make the home more appealing
• Resale flooring replacement — New flooring can enhance the home's value
• Resale system upgrades — Upgrading systems can improve the home's functionality and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
paint · Peeling and chipping	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · No visible damage, but not inspected	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No visible flooring, but not inspected	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · No visible interior, but not inspected	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · No visible systems, but not inspected	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale exterior painting — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal ↑
• Resale roof inspection and repair — A new roof can add value and prevent future costly repairs ↑
• Resale interior painting — Fresh paint inside can make the home more appealing ↑
• Resale flooring replacement — New flooring can enhance the home's value ↑
• Resale system upgrades — Upgrading systems can improve the home's functionality and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagstaff Unified District (4192)
• NCES district ID: 0402860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,510
• Composite: 21.11/100
• National rank: #8437
• State rank: #158 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Bellemont

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellemont, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 1,447

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Native American 23% Two or more races 22% Hispanic / Latino 17% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.91%
• Current HPI: 219.9374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $439,950 Zillow
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $449,950 Zillow
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $459,950 Zillow
• 2025-06-10 Price Changed $474,950 Zillow
• 2025-06-07 Listed $479,950 Zillow