5200-5200 Irvine Blvd #285

Irvine, CA 92620

$519,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,653/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,722
• Tax + insurance: −$332
• HOA: −$289
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$767
• Net cashflow: $-457/mo
• Annual: $-5,480/yr
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.77%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $145,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $519k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-457 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $438k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $365k (29.6% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($511k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $365k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#100 in CA, #3,537 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Irvine Unified (urban): math 74% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #31 of 517 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Northwood Elementary (516 students, 31% FRL); Sierra Vista Middle (1,126 students, 17% FRL); Northwood High (math 75% / reading 83%, grade A-, #51 of 1,170 statewide, top 4%, 2,251 students, 19% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 151 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 1.2% in Irvine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.