4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #95

Birch Bay, WA 98230

$279,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 870 sqft · Built 2002 · Condo · Pending · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,090/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$465
• HOA: −$130
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-407/mo
• Annual: $-4,884/yr
• Cap rate: 4.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.25%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $78,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-407 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (21.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (25.1% below list).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $209k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine Middle School (459 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $279k implies a 397% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?