248 Maiden Ln

Erie, PA 16504

$175,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,349 sqft · Built 1941 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,123/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$353
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $-383/mo
• Annual: $-4,601/yr
• Cap rate: 3.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.39%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-383 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $107k (38.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (35.8% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $107k (38.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $175k implies a 289% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 5.3% in Erie — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.