248 Maiden Ln · Erie, PA 16504

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,349 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1941 7,501 sqft lot Est $193k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on a tree-lined street, this enchanting brick home offers a rare blend of timeless character and thoughtful updates. As the seasons begin to turn, the property comes alive with hundreds of established perennials, creating a vibrant, ever-changing landscape that feels straight out of a storybook. Set on a spacious double lot, the home boasts a large, newly paved driveway leading to a recently constructed garage. The fully fenced yard provides a private retreat ideal for pets, play, or peaceful afternoons. Inside, you’ll find rich hardwood floors throughout, adding warmth and elegance to every room. The oak kitchen is a true standout, featuring solid cabinetry that has been

Key facts

• Oak kitchen
• Newly paved driveway
• Double lot

Tags

• TREE-LINED STREET
• DOUBLE LOT
• NEWLY PAVED DRIVEWAY
• RECENTLY CONSTRUCTED GARAGE
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• OAK KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-383 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $107k (38.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (35.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (38.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 5.1% in Erie — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $175k implies a 289% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $107,275 (38.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.39%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $192,907
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
248 Maiden Ln	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,349 (0%)	0mo	$175,950	$130	95
242 E 32 St	0.12mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,336 (-1%)	3mo	$75,201	$56	86
3114 Old French Rd	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,320 (-2%)	4mo	$152,000	$115	80
3216 French St	0.26mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,220 (-10%)	2mo	$175,000	$143	65
347 E 35th St	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (-13%)	2mo	$200,000	$170	64
149 E 30th St	0.26mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,236 (-8%)	4mo	$143,500	$116	63
361 E 35th St	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (-13%)	3mo	$181,000	$154	62
239 E 25th St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,404 (+4%)	1mo	$77,500	$55	62
3831 Sassafras St	0.58mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,424 (+6%)	4mo	$250,000	$176	54
749 E 32nd St	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,270 (-6%)	1mo	$181,000	$143	53
3848 Eliot Rd	0.68mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	2mo	$255,000	$177	49
3322 Glenwood Park Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (-8%)	1mo	$140,000	$112	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-52,720
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.57×
• Total profit: $-77,128
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16504

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,123 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$280 /mo · $3,359/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $-383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,608

Max offer price $107,275

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-284	-5% $-334	+0% $-383	+5% $-433	+10% $-482
Rent	-10% $-472	-5% $-428	+0% $-383	+5% $-339	+10% $-295
Rate	-1.0pp $-295	-0.5pp $-339	base $-383	+0.5pp $-429	+1.0pp $-475

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
115 W 32nd St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,050	$0.57	45d	1	0.43mi
614 E 22nd St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	45d	1	0.87mi
504 W 29th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	45d	1	1.01mi
3603 Maple St Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,000	$0.83	45d	1	1.13mi
811 W 30th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,175	$1.31	45d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $175,000 Active
3. 1991-12-27
   soldstatus $45,000
4. 1978-05-30
   soldstatus $31,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,359 · $280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,359 · $280/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,477
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,359
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,078
• − Management: −$1,078
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$7,808
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,874
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,632

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Subsaharan African 2% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, India, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.54%
• Current HPI: 260.1053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+452.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-03-31 Listed $175,000 GEBOR
• 1991-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1978-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $31,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,359 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.