37931 State Route 12e

Clayton, NY 13624

$299,750D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,681/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,572
• Tax + insurance: −$473
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-717/mo
• Annual: $-8,602/yr
• Cap rate: 3.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.25%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $83,930

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-717 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (42.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (43.9% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (43.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (9.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#621 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Thousand Islands Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #262 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Guardino Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 293 students, 44% FRL); Thousand Islands Middle School (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C+, #233 of 729 statewide, top 32%, 209 students, 50% FRL); Thousand Islands High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 247 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 29% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 1.5% in Clayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.