37931 State Route 12e · Clayton, NY 13624

$299,750

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1930 9.20 ac lot $170/sqft · 39% below area Est $488k · 39% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Awesome opportunity to own an over 9 acre parcel just outside of Beautiful Clayton! Sweet old farmhouse with excellent bones and great space that would be beautiful brought back to life! 4 bedrooms, woodstove, spacious dining and living room areas, bedrooms upstairs, cozy kitchen and tons or parking! Nice old barn in great shape and lots of opportunity here to rehab this gem and have a beautiful piece of property in a fabulous location! Just 5 minutes from Clayton and 10 minutes to Cape Vincent and all your boating, fishing and recreational desires on the beautiful Saint Lawrence!

Key facts

• Cozy kitchen
• Rehab opportunity
• Woodstove

Tags

• OVER 9 ACRE PARCEL
• OLD FARMHOUSE
• WOODSTOVE
• COZY KITCHEN
• OLD BARN
• REHAB OPPORTUNITY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 4-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: 2-story house; Existing construction; Wood siding; Stone foundation
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Barn(s); Outbuilding; Irregular, wooded lot; Main thoroughfare road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil forced-air heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-717 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (42.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (43.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (43.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 1.5% in Clayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#621 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Thousand Islands Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #262 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Guardino Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 293 students, 44% FRL); Thousand Islands Middle School (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C+, #233 of 729 statewide, top 32%, 209 students, 50% FRL); Thousand Islands High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 247 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 29% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (9.4% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $168,141 (43.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.25%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $487,605
• List price: $299,750
• Delta: -38.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37712 State Route 12e	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,552 (-12%)	14mo	$298,500	$192	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $105,131
• Equity at exit: $256,766

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.08×
• Total profit: $342,620
• Equity at exit: $540,186

Cash invested: $83,930 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13624

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,681 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,572
• Tax from tax record: −$348 /mo · $4,180/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-717

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,589

Max offer price $173,121

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-547	-5% $-632	+0% $-717	+5% $-802	+10% $-886
Rent	-10% $-850	-5% $-783	+0% $-717	+5% $-650	+10% $-584
Rate	-1.0pp $-566	-0.5pp $-641	base $-717	+0.5pp $-794	+1.0pp $-874

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,938
• Closing costs: $8,992
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $299,750 Active 587-char remark
2. 2026-05-10
   historical
3. 2026-04-29
   price $299,750
4. 2026-03-18
   price $339,500
5. 2025-11-10
   listed $369,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,180 · $348/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,623 · $385/mo
• Expected delta: +$443/yr (+$37/mo · 10.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,791
• − Property taxes: −$4,180
• − Insurance: −$1,499
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,614
• − Management: −$1,614
• − Depreciation: −$8,720
• Taxable loss: −$14,241
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,418
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thousand Islands Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607650
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $55,233
• Composite: 49.94/100
• National rank: #1930
• State rank: #262 of 590 in NY

Livability — Clayton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #621
• US rank: #11271

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,438

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.39%
• Current HPI: 418.5008
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-19.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $299,750 CNYIS
• 2026-05-10 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $299,750 CNYIS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $339,500 CNYIS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $369,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,180 · +15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.