2505 Ambelwood Ln

O'Fallon, MO 63368

$215,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,305 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Active Under Contract · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,205/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$293
• HOA: −$3
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $319/mo
• Annual: $3,823/yr
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.35%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $319 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $212k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ft. Zumwalt R-II (suburban): math 54% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #14 of 324 in MO (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Dardenne Elem. (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 412 students, 42% FRL); Ft. Zumwalt West High (math 64% / reading 72%, grade B, #13 of 521 statewide, top 2%, 1,778 students, 17% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 374 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $215k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.1% in O'Fallon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.