2505 Ambelwood Ln · O'Fallon, MO 63368

$215,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,305 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1981 7,130 sqft lot Est $254k · 16% under $3/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a beautiful ranch Home single story with three bedrooms, one bath newly painted upgraded bathroom, new dishwasher, new flooring and all the bedrooms vinyl flooring throughout the house. It’s in the Woodcrest subdivision located in the middle of O’fallon shopping district. Make a great starter home.

Key facts

• Upgraded bathroom
• Ranch home
• Vinyl flooring

Tags

• RANCH HOME
• UPGRADED BATHROOM
• NEW DISHWASHER
• NEW FLOORING
• VINYL FLOORING
• WOODCREST SUBDIVISION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential single-family residence
• HOA & community: Woodcrest Homeowners Association; Annual HOA fee of $35; HOA amenities: Other

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (other); Cable available
• Home design: Single-family house; One story
• Construction: Frame construction with shingle siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Other foundation details
• Exterior features: Patio; Fenced yard; Other exterior features; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heat; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $319 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $212k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.2% in O'Fallon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ft. Zumwalt R-II (suburban): math 54% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #14 of 324 in MO (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Dardenne Elem. (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 412 students, 42% FRL); Ft. Zumwalt West High (math 64% / reading 72%, grade B, #13 of 521 statewide, top 2%, 1,778 students, 17% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 374 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $215k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,775 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.35%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $254,475
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2414 Breezy Point Ln	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,312 (+0%)	10mo	$225,000	$171	86
2424 Beaujolais Dr	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,440 (+10%)	2mo	$275,000	$191	73
2402 Brookfield Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+7%)	3mo	$250,000	$179	73
2439 Beaujolais Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,413 (+8%)	11mo	$274,900	$195	67
13 Merribrook Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	1mo	$314,500	$217	67
633 Durango	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,346 (+3%)	7mo	$297,500	$221	62
2403 Brookfield Ln	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,462 (+12%)	12mo	$235,000	$161	57
10 Winter Hill Ct	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,400 (+7%)	7mo	$265,000	$189	53
2307 Longmont Dr	0.41mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,232 (-6%)	12mo	$250,000	$203	48
1814 Springhill Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,188 (-9%)	6mo	$278,000	$234	46
108 Mill Pond Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,188 (-9%)	8mo	$249,999	$210	45
12 Mallard Pointe Dr	0.42mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,476 (+13%)	7mo	$255,000	$173	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-17,640
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,560
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63368

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,205 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,436/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,801

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $440	-5% $379	+0% $319	+5% $258	+10% $197
Rent	-10% $144	-5% $231	+0% $319	+5% $406	+10% $493
Rate	-1.0pp $427	-0.5pp $373	base $319	+0.5pp $263	+1.0pp $206

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
209 Royallsprings Pkwy O Fallon, MO	3.0	2.5	1512	$2,491	$1.65	8d	1	0.63mi
381 Erin Dr Saint Peters, MO	3.0	2.5	1288	$2,500	$1.94	24d	1	0.70mi
256 Cherrywood Parc Dr O Fallon, MO	3.0	2.5	1590	$2,276	$1.43	4d	1	0.85mi
172 Weatherby Landing Dr O Fallon, MO	3.0	2.5	1748	$2,300	$1.32	24d	1	0.95mi
25 Joan Dr Saint Peters, MO	2.0	1.0	950	$1,700	$1.79	24d	1	0.96mi
106 Laura Dr Saint Peters, MO	2.0	1.0	1286	$1,650	$1.28	12d	1	1.06mi
1000 Bramblett Xing O'Fallon, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,945	$1.95	4d	15	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $215,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $229,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $240,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $240,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-27
    listed $240,000 Active
14. 2014-08-21
    soldstatus
15. 2014-06-18
    listed $115,900
16. 2004-12-09
    soldstatus $112,000
17. 1992-07-01
    soldstatus $51,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,436 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,436 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,436
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,116
• − Management: −$2,116
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $377
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$91
• After-tax cash flow: $3,732/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ft. Zumwalt R-II
• NCES district ID: 2908370
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,817
• Composite: 51.04/100
• National rank: #1772
• State rank: #14 of 324 in MO

Livability — O'Fallon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 45,862
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 46,966
• Household income: $124,297
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 538.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 5% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.32%
• Current HPI: 219.7731
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+362.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $240,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-21 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-18 Listed $115,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 1992-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $51,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,436 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.