14786 Rancho Santa Fe Farms Rd

Fairbanks Ranch, CA 92067

$5,350,000D-

4 bd · 5.0 ba · 6,682 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Active · 318 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $33,625/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$28,056
• Tax + insurance: −$5,100
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,061
• Net cashflow: $-6,593/mo
• Annual: $-79,114/yr
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.28%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $1,498,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $5.35M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7k ($-79k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $4.19M (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.36M (37.1% below list).
• It's been on market 318 days — a 12% lower offer ($4.71M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3.36M (37.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $303k of equity ($37k loan paydown + $266k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,067 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Solana Beach Elementary (urban): math 82% / reading 86% proficiency, ranked #23 of 1,400 in CA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Solana Santa Fe Elementary (327 students, 12% FRL); Earl Warren Middle (517 students, 17% FRL); Torrey Pines High (2,614 students, 16% FRL).
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $650k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $425k; list at $5.35M implies a 1159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$486k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 1.8% in Fairbanks Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 318 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.