14786 Rancho Santa Fe Farms Rd · Fairbanks Ranch, CA 92067

$5,350,000

4 bd · 5.0 ba · 6,682 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 318 Days on market

Built 1999 2.00 ac lot Est $5118k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Schools +7.8/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

VALUE RANGE - $4,950,000 - $5,350,000 Welcome to this extraordinary custom estate offering ultimate privacy and luxury behind its own private gate complete with resort size pool and backyard, waterslide, entertainment spaces and ponds completing the serene aesthetic. The main residence spans approximately 7,938 sqft on 2 acres featuring 4 spacious ensuite bedrooms and optional bedroom spaces, 4.5 bathrooms, formal and informal living areas, a gourmet kitchen with high-end appliances, and a large family room designed for entertaining and everyday comfort. Upgraded lighting throughout completes this expansive living and floor plan. The primary suite is a true sanctuary, featuring a cozy fire

Key facts

• Full bedroom
• Entertainment spaces
• Resort size pool

Tags

• PRIVATE GATE
• RESORT SIZE POOL
• WATERSLIDE
• ENTERTAINMENT SPACES
• DETACHED LARGE GUEST HOUSE
• FULL BEDROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Total of 18 parking spaces; Attached 3-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Connected to sewer
• Home design: Single family residence (detached); 2-story
• Construction: Detached construction
• Exterior features: Full fencing; Private in-ground pool; Solar panels

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Trash disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Up to 5 bedrooms (possible configuration)
• Bathrooms: 5 full bathrooms; 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; Zoned cooling; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Multiple fireplaces; Solar energy integration
• Laundry & utility: Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $5.35M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7k ($-79k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $4.19M (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.36M (37.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $3.36M (37.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 1.8% in Fairbanks Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,067 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Solana Beach Elementary (urban): math 82% / reading 86% proficiency, ranked #23 of 1,400 in CA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Solana Santa Fe Elementary (327 students, 12% FRL); Earl Warren Middle (517 students, 17% FRL); Torrey Pines High (2,614 students, 16% FRL).
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $303k of equity ($37k loan paydown + $266k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$486k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 318 days — a 12% lower offer ($4.71M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $650k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $425k; list at $5.35M implies a 1159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $3,362,487 (37.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 318 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.28%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $5,118,412
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14619 Calle Carla	0.20mi	5/6.0 (+1)	6,401 (-4%)	8mo	$4,900,000	$766	68
14479 Emerald Ln	0.42mi	4/5.0	5,878 (-12%)	11mo	$5,350,000	$910	51
6185 Clubhouse Dr	0.64mi	4/4.5	6,131 (-8%)	16mo	$4,680,000	$763	41
6325 Clubhouse Dr	0.52mi	5/5.5 (+1)	6,117 (-8%)	17mo	$4,809,000	$786	41
15718 Circo Diegueno Rd	0.64mi	4/5.5	5,696 (-15%)	9mo	$3,195,000	$561	36
6906 Royal Birkdale Pl	0.72mi	5/5.5 (+1)	7,470 (+12%)	16mo	$5,140,000	$688	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $804,520
• Equity at exit: $3,024,496

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $2,795,913
• Equity at exit: $5,213,861

Cash invested: $1,498,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92067

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $33,625 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$28,056
• Tax from tax record: −$2,871 /mo · $34,456/yr
• Insurance: −$2,229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,061
• Net cashflow: $-6,593

Break-even live

Break-even rent $41,970

Max offer price $4,185,354

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3,564	-5% $-5,079	+0% $-6,593	+5% $-8,107	+10% $-9,621
Rent	-10% $-9,249	-5% $-7,921	+0% $-6,593	+5% $-5,265	+10% $-3,936
Rate	-1.0pp $-3,899	-0.5pp $-5,232	base $-6,593	+0.5pp $-7,979	+1.0pp $-9,389

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,337,500
• Closing costs: $160,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14716 Ladys Secret Ct Del Mar, CA	5.0	8.0	8950	$45,000	$5.03	0d	1	0.61mi
16653 Avenida Molino Viejo Rancho Santa Fe, CA	5.0	5.5	6247	$20,000	$3.20	0d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $5,350,000 Active 318 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $5,350,000 Active 317 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $5,350,000 Active 316 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $5,350,000 Active 315 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $5,350,000 Active 314 DOM
6. 2026-05-08
   price $5,350,000
7. 2025-10-28
   price $5,725,000
8. 2025-07-17
   listed $6,000,000 Active
9. 2016-12-01
   historical
10. 2016-10-10
    listed $3,295,000 Active
11. 2016-05-20
    historical
12. 2015-11-29
    listed $3,325,000 Active
13. 1998-01-30
    soldstatus $425,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $34,456 · $2,871/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $40,660 · $3,388/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,204/yr (+$517/mo · 18.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $403,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$299,683
• − Property taxes: −$34,456
• − Insurance: −$26,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$32,280
• − Management: −$32,280
• − Depreciation: −$155,636
• Taxable loss: −$177,586
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$42,621
• After-tax cash flow: $-36,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Solana Beach Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0636990
• Math proficiency: 82% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 86% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $113,696
• Composite: 77.67/100
• National rank: #152
• State rank: #23 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Fairbanks Ranch

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1067
• US rank: #25280

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairbanks Ranch, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,245

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Two or more races 24% Hispanic / Latino 15% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.98%
• Current HPI: 322.5502
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1158.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $5,350,000 SDMLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $5,725,000 SDMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listed $6,000,000 SDMLS
• 2016-12-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2016-10-10 Listed $3,295,000 SDMLS
• 2016-05-20 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2015-11-29 Listed $3,325,000 SDMLS
• 1998-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $425,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $34,456 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.