11318 Dallas St

Carlsbad, TX 76934

$200,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,307/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $-199/mo
• Annual: $-2,391/yr
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.27%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-199 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (34.7% below list).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,354 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Water Valley ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #363 of 1,141 in TX (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Angelo State School (3 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 42% district-wide (42 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 233 units permitted in Tom Green County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tom Green County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.