11318 Dallas St · Carlsbad, TX 76934

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 2022 0.34 ac lot $119/sqft · 7% below area Est $215k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With 1,680 square feet of well-designed living space, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home blends modern finishes with everyday functionality. The open-concept layout connects the spacious living area to an oversized kitchen featuring a large island that's perfect for entertaining, meal prep, or casual dining. The primary suite offers plenty of room to relax and includes an oversized walk-in shower. The additional bedrooms are generously sized and versatile for guests, a home office, or family needs. Situated on a large corner lot with secure metal fencing, this property provides privacy and room to spread out. A durable metal roof and septic system installed in 2024 add long-term peace of mind. Located in the desirable Water Valley School District, this newer home checks all the boxes.

Key facts

• Durable metal roof
• Large corner lot
• Oversized kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• OVERSIZED KITCHEN
• LARGE CORNER LOT
• SECURE METAL FENCING
• DURABLE METAL ROOF
• SEPTIC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-199 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (34.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,354 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Water Valley ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #363 of 1,141 in TX (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Angelo State School (3 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 42% district-wide (42 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 233 units permitted in Tom Green County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Tom Green County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $130,696 (34.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.27%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,015
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -6.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11175 Houston St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,473 (-12%)	4mo	$215,000	$146	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $11,330
• Equity at exit: $89,929

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $58,050
• Equity at exit: $138,591

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76934

• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,307 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,195/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $-199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,559

Max offer price $164,801

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-86	-5% $-143	+0% $-199	+5% $-256	+10% $-312
Rent	-10% $-303	-5% $-251	+0% $-199	+5% $-148	+10% $-96
Rate	-1.0pp $-99	-0.5pp $-148	base $-199	+0.5pp $-251	+1.0pp $-304

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $200,000 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $200,000 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $200,000 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $200,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-04-16
   price $200,000 788-char remark

   Show marketing remark (788 chars)

   With 1,680 square feet of well-designed living space, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home blends modern finishes with everyday functionality. The open-concept layout connects the spacious living area to an oversized kitchen featuring a large island that's perfect for entertaining, meal prep, or casual dining. The primary suite offers plenty of room to relax and includes an oversized walk-in shower. The additional bedrooms are generously sized and versatile for guests, a home office, or family needs. Situated on a large corner lot with secure metal fencing, this property provides privacy and room to spread out. A durable metal roof and septic system installed in 2024 add long-term peace of mind. Located in the desirable Water Valley School District, this newer home checks all the boxes.

10. 2026-03-17
    price $220,000 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    With 1,680 square feet of well-designed living space, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home blends modern finishes with everyday functionality. The open-concept layout connects the spacious living area to an oversized kitchen featuring a large island that's perfect for entertaining, meal prep, or casual dining. The primary suite offers plenty of room to relax and includes an oversized walk-in shower. The additional bedrooms are generously sized and versatile for guests, a home office, or family needs. Situated on a large corner lot with secure metal fencing, this property provides privacy and room to spread out. A durable metal roof and septic system installed in 2024 add long-term peace of mind. Located in the desirable Water Valley School District, this newer home checks all the boxes.

11. 2026-02-18
    listed $240,000 Active 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    With 1,680 square feet of well-designed living space, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home blends modern finishes with everyday functionality. The open-concept layout connects the spacious living area to an oversized kitchen featuring a large island that's perfect for entertaining, meal prep, or casual dining. The primary suite offers plenty of room to relax and includes an oversized walk-in shower. The additional bedrooms are generously sized and versatile for guests, a home office, or family needs. Situated on a large corner lot with secure metal fencing, this property provides privacy and room to spread out. A durable metal roof and septic system installed in 2024 add long-term peace of mind. Located in the desirable Water Valley School District, this newer home checks all the boxes.

12. 2024-11-22
    soldstatus Closed 562-char remark

    Show marketing remark (562 chars)

    Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located on a spacious corner lot, in the desirable Water Valley School District! Built in 2022, this modern property boasts 1,680 square feet of living space, encapsulating contemporary finishes and functionality. The heart of this home is its expansive kitchen, featuring ample room for entertaining. Retreat to the large master suite, complete with an oversized master shower. Enjoy the large lot this home sits on, secure metal fencing, and metal roof, offering both privacy and peace of mind. Schedule your showing today!

13. 2024-11-18
    status Pending 562-char remark

    Show marketing remark (562 chars)

    Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located on a spacious corner lot, in the desirable Water Valley School District! Built in 2022, this modern property boasts 1,680 square feet of living space, encapsulating contemporary finishes and functionality. The heart of this home is its expansive kitchen, featuring ample room for entertaining. Retreat to the large master suite, complete with an oversized master shower. Enjoy the large lot this home sits on, secure metal fencing, and metal roof, offering both privacy and peace of mind. Schedule your showing today!

14. 2024-11-13
    status Pending 562-char remark

    Show marketing remark (562 chars)

    Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located on a spacious corner lot, in the desirable Water Valley School District! Built in 2022, this modern property boasts 1,680 square feet of living space, encapsulating contemporary finishes and functionality. The heart of this home is its expansive kitchen, featuring ample room for entertaining. Retreat to the large master suite, complete with an oversized master shower. Enjoy the large lot this home sits on, secure metal fencing, and metal roof, offering both privacy and peace of mind. Schedule your showing today!

15. 2024-09-20
    listed $175,000 Active 562-char remark

    Show marketing remark (562 chars)

    Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located on a spacious corner lot, in the desirable Water Valley School District! Built in 2022, this modern property boasts 1,680 square feet of living space, encapsulating contemporary finishes and functionality. The heart of this home is its expansive kitchen, featuring ample room for entertaining. Retreat to the large master suite, complete with an oversized master shower. Enjoy the large lot this home sits on, secure metal fencing, and metal roof, offering both privacy and peace of mind. Schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,195 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,465/yr (+$205/mo · 206.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,195
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,255
• − Management: −$1,255
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$6,042
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,450
• After-tax cash flow: $-941/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Water Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844710
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,785
• Composite: 44.57/100
• National rank: #6043
• State rank: #363 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1354
• US rank: #23322

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,172

Population outlook (Tom Green County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,110 people
• By 2030: 144,090 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 162,561 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 182,158 · +34.8%
• By 2075: 232,274 · +71.9%
• By 2100: 268,218 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 12% Black 11% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tom Green

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.0) · D 25.5% · R 73.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -41.7pp · 2024: -48.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.0 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+47.9 2012: R+47.9 2008: R+41.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+14.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $200,000 SAAR TX
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $220,000 SAAR TX
• 2026-02-18 Listed $240,000 SAAR TX
• 2024-11-22 Sold (MLS) — SAAR TX
• 2024-11-18 Pending — SAAR TX
• 2024-11-13 Pending — SAAR TX
• 2024-09-20 Listed $175,000 SAAR TX