9970 Skyline Dr

Lime Lake, NY 14042

$194,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,132/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,020
• Tax + insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $-480/mo
• Annual: $-5,754/yr
• Cap rate: 3.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.57%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $54,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-480 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (43.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (41.8% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (43.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,109 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Yorkshire-Pioneer Central School District (town): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #358 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Delevan Elementary School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 355 students, 51% FRL); Pioneer Middle School (math 35% / reading 52%, grade D, #366 of 729 statewide, top 51%, 662 students, 52% FRL); Pioneer Senior High School (math 98% / reading 95%, grade A+, #59 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 658 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.