859-861 Baker St

San Francisco, CA 94115

$1,298,000C-

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,535 sqft · Built 1900 · Townhouse · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,917/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,807
• Tax + insurance: −$2,175
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,083
• Net cashflow: $-1,147/mo
• Annual: $-13,768/yr
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.79%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $363,440

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $1.30M. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.10M (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $992k (23.6% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $992k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $120k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $111k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lilienthal (Claire) Elementary (669 students, 19% FRL); Giannini (A.P.) Middle (1,192 students, 34% FRL); Lowell High (2,632 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+20.6%/yr); 174 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $520k; list at $1.30M implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$192k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $9,917/mo this rent would consume 79% of the median local household income ($152k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Slight wear and tear, but not structural damage.
• Minor: Bathtub and shower fixtures — Older style, may need replacement for a more modern look.
• Moderate: Exterior siding — Visible wear and tear, may need repainting or replacement.
• Moderate: Hardwood floors — Scratches and wear, may need refinishing or replacement.