Is 859-861 Baker St in San Francisco, CA a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it C- with a 5.2% cap rate and $-1,147/mo modeled cash flow at a $1,298,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 859-861 Baker St?

The modeled cap rate is 5.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $9,917/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏷️ Likely Rental

C- Composite 54.25

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Appreciation +9.3/10.0
Cash flow +8.5/30.0
Rent growth +5.0/5.0
Schools +5.0/10.0
Livability +3.8/5.0
Condition / age +2.8/5.0
1% rule +2.6/10.0
DSCR +2.3/10.0

$1,298,000

859-861 Baker St · San Francisco, CA 94115

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,535 sqft · Townhouse public records · 4 Days on market

◐ Fractional Built 1900 Average condition 3,025 sqft lot $846/sqft · 37% above area Est $1.959M · 34% under

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Exceptional value-add opportunity in a prime NOPA location. 859-861 Baker Street is a five-unit building offering a compelling combination of immediate flexibility, approved plans, and significant long-term upside. With four units delivered vacant and just one tenant-occupied unit currently paying $3,282 per month, the property presents a rare opportunity for investors, developers, contractors, and TIC buyers. The building features a versatile unit mix of one 3-bedroom, one 1-bedroom, and three studios, with approved plans to remodel the none- occupied units allowing a new owner to move forward with improvements. Plans have been approved and are ready to be picked up.

Key facts

Approved plans
Five-unit building
Prime nopa location

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $1.30M. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.10M (15.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $992k (23.6% below list).
Recommended offer: $992k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Lilienthal (Claire) Elementary (669 students, 19% FRL); Giannini (A.P.) Middle (1,192 students, 34% FRL); Lowell High (2,632 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+20.6%/yr); 174 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
At $9,917/mo this rent would consume 79% of the median local household income ($152k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $120k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $111k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$192k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Current owner paid $520k; list at $1.30M implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $991,739 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.76% ✗
Cap rate: 5.23%
Cash-on-cash: -3.79%
DSCR: 0.83
GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $1,958,715
List price: $1,298,000
Delta: -33.73%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1684 Mcallister St	0.17mi	4/1.5 (-2)	1,706 (+11%)	1mo	$2,500,000	$1,465	57
4339 California St #1	1.26mi	4/2.0 (-2)	1,587 (+3%)	1mo	$2,306,000	$1,453	44
635-637 Spruce St	0.68mi	6/3.0	1,952 (+27%)	1mo	$1,460,000	$748	43
1740 Larkin St	1.63mi	4/2.5 (-2)	1,644 (+7%)	0mo	$1,310,000	$797	41
12 Beaver St	1.07mi	4/2.0 (-2)	1,626 (+6%)	1mo	$1,505,000	$926	40
563 23rd Ave	2.21mi	4/3.0 (-2)	1,389 (-10%)	1mo	$1,838,000	$1,323	38
871 14th St	0.97mi	6/4.0	1,920 (+25%)	2mo	$2,208,000	$1,150	34
178 Parker Ave	0.67mi	4/3.0 (-2)	1,811 (+18%)	0mo	$1,995,000	$1,102	33
750 22nd Ave	2.14mi	4/3.0 (-2)	1,914 (+25%)	1mo	$2,850,000	$1,489	29
1285-1287 Pacific Ave	1.83mi	4/2.0 (-2)	1,338 (-13%)	2mo	$1,300,000	$972	28
75 Aloha Ave	2.17mi	4/2.5 (-2)	1,988 (+30%)	2mo	$3,408,000	$1,714	27
45 Deming St	1.30mi	4/2.0 (-2)	1,945 (+27%)	0mo	$3,000,000	$1,542	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.52% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 20.0%
Equity multiple: 2.53×
Total profit: $557,426
Equity at exit: $1,032,112

10-year hold

IRR: 19.9%
Equity multiple: 5.97×
Total profit: $1,807,154
Equity at exit: $2,094,219

Cash invested: $363,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
County: — inherits STATE
City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94115

Home prices YoY: 3.9%
Rents YoY: 20.6%
Active inventory: 174
Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $9,917 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$6,807
Tax from tax record: −$1,634 /mo · $19,612/yr
Insurance: −$541
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,083
Net cashflow: $-1,147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,370

Max offer price $1,095,324

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-413	-5% $-780	+0% $-1,147	+5% $-1,515	+10% $-1,882
Rent	-10% $-1,931	-5% $-1,539	+0% $-1,147	+5% $-756	+10% $-364
Rate	-1.0pp $-494	-0.5pp $-817	base $-1,147	+0.5pp $-1,484	+1.0pp $-1,826

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $324,500
Closing costs: $38,940
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1763 Fulton St San Francisco, CA	5.0	2.0	1110	$10,000	$9.01	134d	1	0.31mi
937 Hayes St Unit 939 San Francisco, CA	5.0	2.5	1725	$12,500	$7.25	6d	1	0.60mi
261 Dolores St San Francisco, CA	6.0	3.0	1600	$14,000	$8.75	51d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $1,298,000 Active 4 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $1,298,000 Active 3 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $1,298,000 Active 2 DOM
2026-11-04

statusdays on market $1,298,000 Active 1 DOM
2026-10-29

listing id $1,298,000 Coming Soon
2026-10-16

listing id $1,298,000 Coming Soon
2026-10-15

remarks 699-char remark
2026-10-15

pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $1,298,000 Coming Soon
2026-10-09

days on market $1,295,000 Active 144 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $1,295,000 Active 143 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $1,295,000 Active 142 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $1,295,000 Active 141 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $1,295,000 Active 140 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $1,295,000 Active 139 DOM
2026-10-03

days on market $1,295,000 Active 138 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $1,295,000 Active 137 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $1,295,000 Active 136 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $1,295,000 Active 135 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $1,295,000 Active 134 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $1,295,000 Active 133 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $1,295,000 Active 132 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $1,295,000 Active 131 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $1,295,000 Active 130 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $1,295,000 Active 129 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $1,295,000 Active 128 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $1,295,000 Active 127 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $1,295,000 Active 126 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $1,295,000 Active 125 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $1,295,000 Active 124 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $1,295,000 Active 123 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $1,295,000 Active 122 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $1,295,000 Active 121 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $1,295,000 Active 120 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $1,295,000 Active 119 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $1,295,000 Active 118 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $1,295,000 Active 117 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $1,295,000 Active 116 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $1,295,000 Active 110 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $1,295,000 Active 109 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $1,295,000 Active 108 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $1,295,000 Active 105 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $1,295,000 Active 104 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $1,295,000 Active 103 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $1,295,000 Active 102 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $1,295,000 Active 101 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $1,295,000 Active 100 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $1,295,000 Active 99 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $1,295,000 Active 98 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $1,295,000 Active 97 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $1,295,000 Active 96 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $19,612 · $1,634/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $19,612 · $1,634/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥78°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 1/10 Low
🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $119,009
− Mortgage interest: −$72,708
− Property taxes: −$19,612
− Insurance: −$6,490
− Repairs & maintenance: −$9,521
− Management: −$9,521
− Depreciation: −$37,760
Taxable loss: −$36,603

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,785
After-tax cash flow: $-4,983/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $38,375–$69,075 screening

The property requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and appeal. Upgrading the kitchen and bathroom, repainting, and updating the flooring will significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Deferred maintenance Est. $50,000–$150,000 screening

Major Roof (roof) — visible damage to roof structure
Major Windows (windows) — visible damage to window frames
Major Electrical (electrical) — visible damage to electrical wiring
Major Plumbing (plumbing) — visible damage to plumbing fixtures
Major Exterior (exterior) — visible damage to exterior walls and siding

Repairs flagged

Minor Kitchen cabinets — Slight wear and tear, but not structural damage.
Minor Bathtub and shower fixtures — Older style, may need replacement for a more modern look.
Moderate Exterior siding — Visible wear and tear, may need repainting or replacement.
Moderate Hardwood floors — Scratches and wear, may need refinishing or replacement.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Updating kitchen cabinets and fixtures — Modernizing the kitchen will attract more buyers. ↑
Resale Updating bathroom fixtures and possibly the bathtub — A modern bathroom will enhance the home's appeal. ↑
Both Repainting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint will improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Reconditioning or replacing hardwood floors — Refinished or new floors will enhance the home's value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Elementary Chinese Immersion School At Deavila Middle Roosevelt Middle High Wallenberg (Raoul) Traditional High

Schools (NCES district)

District: San Francisco Unified
NCES district ID: 0634410
Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
Median HH income: $81,249
Composite: 50.14/100
National rank: #4088
State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — San Francisco

Score: 76/100
State rank: #90
US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: San Francisco, CA
County: San Francisco County · 1,030,936 people
City population: 827,552
Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
Population (ZIP): 32,629
Household income: $151,524
Rent vs Own: 74.4% rent · 25.6% own
Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
Race & ethnicity: White 49% Asian 20% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 10%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▲ 8.52%
Current HPI: 224.7175
Rent YoY: ▲ 20.62%
Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Technology	27	$1,492B
#4 Apple Cupertino $391.0B #7 Alphabet Mountain View $350.0B #22 Meta Platforms Menlo Park $164.5B #31 NVIDIA Santa Clara $130.5B #83 Cisco Systems San Jose $53.8B #84 HP Inc Palo Alto $53.6B #86 Intel Santa Clara $53.1B #88 Broadcom Palo Alto $52.4B #109 Qualcomm San Diego $39.0B #112 Salesforce San Francisco $38.4B #140 Applied Materials Santa Clara $27.2B #155 AMD Santa Clara $22.7B #330 Intuit Mountain View $16.3B #242 Lam Research Fremont $15.8B #252 Western Digital San Jose $13.0B #366 ServiceNow Santa Clara $11.0B #282 KLA Corporation Milpitas $10.8B #405 Workday Pleasanton $7.9B #302 Arista Networks Santa Clara $6.7B #365 NetApp San Jose $6.5B #352 Synopsys Sunnyvale $6.1B #331 Autodesk San Francisco $6.0B #395 Juniper Networks Sunnyvale $5.6B #403 Cadence Design Systems San Jose $4.6B #430 Veeva Systems Pleasanton $2.4B #397 Teradata San Diego $1.8B #461 Dolby Laboratories San Francisco $1.3B
Financial Services	3	$174B
#33 Wells Fargo San Francisco $125.4B #272 Visa San Francisco $35.9B #308 LPL Financial Holdings San Diego $12.3B
Retail	3	$44B
#162 Ross Stores Dublin $20.9B #231 Gap San Francisco $15.6B #323 Williams-Sonoma San Francisco $7.7B
Insurance	3	$26B
#241 Pacific Life Newport Beach $13.4B #293 First American Financial Santa Ana $7.7B #482 Mercury General Los Angeles $5.2B
Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
#46 Walt Disney Burbank $91.4B #263 Live Nation Entertainment Beverly Hills $23.2B
Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B
#126 Amgen Thousand Oaks $33.3B #137 Gilead Sciences Foster City $28.4B

Price history

+49.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2000-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $520,000 Public Records
1998-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $348,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $19,612 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…