859-861 Baker St · San Francisco, CA 94115

$1,295,000

20 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,535 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1900 3,025 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 5 units. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Plans submitted for remodeling five units in tremendous NOPA location. Great unit mix of 3 studios, one 1-bedroom and one 3-bedroom. Two units are occupied by tenants. Lots of upside and or potential in this one! Bring your developers and contractors!

Key facts

• 3,025 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 33 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living/building area listed as 1,535 (assessor source)
• Financial info: 5 total units with 2 leased, 3 vacant, and 2 owner-occupied
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Home design: Residential income building (multi-family, 5 or more units); Built in 1900; No stories count provided
• Construction: Construction details not specified
• Exterior features: Lot measures approximately 3,025 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total
• Interior features: Fixer condition; Regular-shaped lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1×3bd/1ba + 1×1bd/1ba + 3×?bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $1.29M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($40k/yr) — positive. Per door: $672/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $1.29M).
• Recommended offer: $1.26M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+20.6%/yr); 64 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $15,604/mo this rent would consume 124% of the median local household income ($152k/yr) (locally 2151% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $119k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $110k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.5% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $363k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$191k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.26M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $520k; list at $1.29M implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $1,256,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.13%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.52% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $873,437
• Equity at exit: $1,029,727

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.13×
• Total profit: $2,586,574
• Equity at exit: $2,089,379

Cash invested: $362,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94115

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: 20.6%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 30.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,604 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,791
• Tax from tax record: −$1,634 /mo · $19,612/yr
• Insurance: −$540
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,277
• Net cashflow: $3,362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,348

Max offer price $1,295,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,095	-5% $3,729	+0% $3,362	+5% $2,996	+10% $2,629
Rent	-10% $2,129	-5% $2,746	+0% $3,362	+5% $3,978	+10% $4,595
Rate	-1.0pp $4,014	-0.5pp $3,691	base $3,362	+0.5pp $3,027	+1.0pp $2,685

5-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	3	1	$3,548
1× unit	1	1	$2,755
▸ 3× units	0	1	$9,300
Total (5 units)			$15,604

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $323,750
• Closing costs: $38,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $1,295,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,395,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,395,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $1,395,000 Active
17. 2000-09-29
    soldstatus $520,000
18. 2000-04-05
    listed $598,000
19. 1998-10-07
    listed $495,000
20. 1998-07-23
    soldstatus $348,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $19,612 · $1,634/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,612 · $1,634/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥78°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $187,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$72,540
• − Property taxes: −$19,612
• − Insurance: −$6,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,980
• − Management: −$14,980
• − Depreciation: −$37,673
• Taxable income: $20,988
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,037
• After-tax cash flow: $35,308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 32,629
• Household income: $151,524
• Rent vs Own: 74.4% rent · 25.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2151.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Asian 20% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.52%
• Current HPI: 224.7175
• Rent YoY: ▲ 20.62%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+300.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $1,395,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2000-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $520,000 Public Records
• 2000-04-05 Listed $598,000 San Francisco MLS
• 1998-10-07 Listed $495,000 San Francisco MLS
• 1998-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $348,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $19,612 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.