12445 Lookout Loop Unit F16-05

Truckee, CA 96161

$12,500C-

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,985 sqft · Built 2004 · Timeshare · Active · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,897/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$66
• Tax + insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$869
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,658
• Net cashflow: $5,284/mo
• Annual: $63,403/yr
• Cap rate: 513.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 1811.52%
• DSCR: 81.60
• 1% rule: 63.18%
• Cash to close: $3,500

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath timeshare listed at $12k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($63k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $12k).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($11k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $11k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $86 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $375 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#697 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tahoe-Truckee Unified (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #136 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 375 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 513.5% vs local median 2.0% in Truckee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,897/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($132k/yr) (locally 559% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.