12445 Lookout Loop Unit F16-05 · Truckee, CA 96161

$12,500

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,985 sqft · Timeshare · 119 Days on market

Built 2004 $4/sqft · 23% below area Est $16k · 23% under $869/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on the 10th Fairway of the Jack Nicklaus Championship Golf Course & is close to the Old Greenwood Pavilion. Enjoy week 05 (first week of February) every year plus additional time using a 7 night Flex Week, a 4 night midweek and spontaneous time within 7 days of arrival subject to availability. Features a loft with a pool table, great golf course views and your own private hot tub on the back deck. Fantastic amenities when in residence include discounted golf, use to a swimming pool, tennis courts, fitness facilities, a convenient shuttle to Northstar Resort, a private members lounge in the Village & a private on-mountain restaurant. Owners have the ability to exchange reservations into the Elite Alliance family of properties as well. Flex week is 8/14/26 to 8/17/26. Mid Week reservation booked for 6/22/26 to 6/26/26. A great family resort enjoyed in a high end single family cabin. True luxury living at its best!

Key facts

• Fitness facilities
• Swimming pool
• Tennis courts

Tags

• LOFT WITH A POOL TABLE
• GOLF COURSE VIEWS
• PRIVATE HOT TUB
• SWIMMING POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• FITNESS FACILITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath timeshare listed at $12k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($63k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $12k).
• Recommended offer: $11k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 513.5% vs local median 2.0% in Truckee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#697 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tahoe-Truckee Unified (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #136 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 375 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,897/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($132k/yr) (locally 559% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $86 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $375 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($11k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $11,375 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 63.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 513.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 1811.52%
• DSCR: 81.60
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $16,230
• List price: $12,500
• Delta: -22.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 105.20×
• Total profit: $364,697
• Equity at exit: $1,864

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 253.61×
• Total profit: $884,124
• Equity at exit: $1,081

Cash invested: $3,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96161

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,897 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$66
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$16 /mo · $188/yr
• Insurance: −$5
• HOA: −$869
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,658
• Net cashflow: $5,284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,209

Max offer price $12,500

Occupancy floor 28%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,125
• Closing costs: $375
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10175 Annies Loop Truckee, CA	3.0	3.5	2194	$7,500	$3.42	43d	1	1.00mi
10077 Jake S Way Truckee, CA	3.0	3.5	2552	$10,500	$4.11	43d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $869 · $10,428/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $12,500 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $12,500 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $12,500 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $12,500 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $12,500 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $12,500 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $12,500 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $12,500 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $12,500 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $17,500 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $17,500 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $17,500 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $17,500 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $17,500 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $17,500 Active 100 DOM
16. 2026-02-19
    listed $17,500 Active 946-char remark

    Show marketing remark (946 chars)

    Situated on the 10th Fairway of the Jack Nicklaus Championship Golf Course & is close to the Old Greenwood Pavilion. Enjoy week 05 (first week of February) every year plus additional time using a 7 night Flex Week, a 4 night midweek and spontaneous time within 7 days of arrival subject to availability. Features a loft with a pool table, great golf course views and your own private hot tub on the back deck. Fantastic amenities when in residence include discounted golf, use to a swimming pool, tennis courts, fitness facilities, a convenient shuttle to Northstar Resort, a private members lounge in the Village & a private on-mountain restaurant. Owners have the ability to exchange reservations into the Elite Alliance family of properties as well. Flex week is 8/14/26 to 8/17/26. Mid Week reservation booked for 6/22/26 to 6/26/26. A great family resort enjoyed in a high end single family cabin. True luxury living at its best!

17. 2021-10-12
    soldstatus $9,500 Sold 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Beautiful 4BR cabin at Old Greenwood. Enjoy a winter primary week in February each year. Flex, Mid-Week and Spontaneous week options accompany the primary week. Tahoe Mountain Club membership while in residence, includes shuttle service to Northstar resort & a private members lounge in the Village and private on-mountain restaurant. Summer amenities include pools, tennis, fitness, and kid camps. Flex reservation 2021 is Dec 20 - Dec 27th.

18. 2021-09-14
    historical Contingent 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Beautiful 4BR cabin at Old Greenwood. Enjoy a winter primary week in February each year. Flex, Mid-Week and Spontaneous week options accompany the primary week. Tahoe Mountain Club membership while in residence, includes shuttle service to Northstar resort & a private members lounge in the Village and private on-mountain restaurant. Summer amenities include pools, tennis, fitness, and kid camps. Flex reservation 2021 is Dec 20 - Dec 27th.

19. 2021-08-16
    listed $17,500 Active 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Beautiful 4BR cabin at Old Greenwood. Enjoy a winter primary week in February each year. Flex, Mid-Week and Spontaneous week options accompany the primary week. Tahoe Mountain Club membership while in residence, includes shuttle service to Northstar resort & a private members lounge in the Village and private on-mountain restaurant. Summer amenities include pools, tennis, fitness, and kid camps. Flex reservation 2021 is Dec 20 - Dec 27th.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $94,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$700
• − Property taxes: −$188
• − Insurance: −$62
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,582
• − Management: −$7,582
• − HOA: −$10,428
• − Depreciation: −$364
• Taxable income: $67,865
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16,287
• After-tax cash flow: $47,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tahoe-Truckee Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638770
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,136
• Composite: 44.38/100
• National rank: #2816
• State rank: #136 of 517 in CA

Livability — Truckee

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #697
• US rank: #21110

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Truckee, CA
• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• City population: 19,634
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 19,634
• Household income: $131,702
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 559.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.87%
• Current HPI: 336.9632
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Listed $17,500 TSMLS
• 2021-10-12 Sold (MLS) $9,500 TSMLS
• 2021-09-14 Contingent — TSMLS
• 2021-08-16 Listed $17,500 TSMLS