1650 Belmont Ave #29

Mulberry, FL 33860

$199,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Active · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,605/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-0/mo
• Annual: $-3/yr
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.00%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($-3/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (0.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (19.4% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#311 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Purcell Elementary School (math 41% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,596 of 2,144 statewide, top 75%, 516 students, 64% FRL); Mulberry Senior High School (math 21% / reading 36%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,315 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $199k implies a 1106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.