1650 Belmont Ave #29 · Mulberry, FL 33860

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1980 0.60 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and peaceful living at 1650 Belmont Ave, Mulberry, FL 33860! Nestled in a quiet and desirable area, this property has an excellent opportunity for homeowners or investors alike. • Conveniently located near parks, schools, shopping, and everyday essentials • Just minutes from local favorites including recreational parks and outdoor spaces • Easy access to supermarkets, pharmacies, and major roadways for effortless commuting • A peaceful neighborhood with the charm of small-town living while staying close to everything you need Whether you are looking for your next home or an investment opportunity, this property ha

Key facts

• Near schools
• Near shopping
• Near outdoor spaces

Tags

• NEAR PARKS
• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR RECREATIONAL PARKS
• NEAR OUTDOOR SPACES
• EASY ACCESS TO SUPERMARKETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 0.6 acre (0.5 to <1 acre); Asphalt road access; Unfurnished; Direction to property available
• Financial info: No home warranty; Annual taxes listed separately
• HOA & community: No HOA/association; Pets allowed (max pet weight 120 lbs); Not in a development

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details listed
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Well water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Residential property; Completed condition; One story; Front faces south
• Construction: Metal siding and frame construction; Metal roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built area approximately 980 (owner provided)
• Exterior features: Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating system specified; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($-3/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (0.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#311 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Purcell Elementary School (math 41% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,596 of 2,144 statewide, top 75%, 516 students, 64% FRL); Mulberry Senior High School (math 21% / reading 36%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,315 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $199k implies a 1106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,461 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.00%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-34,548
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-39,226
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33860

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,605 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,696/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-0

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,605

Max offer price $198,960

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $56	+0% $0	+5% $-57	+10% $-113
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-64	+0% $0	+5% $63	+10% $127
Rate	-1.0pp $100	-0.5pp $50	base $0	+0.5pp $-52	+1.0pp $-104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
301 SW 3rd Ter Mulberry, FL	3.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	4d	1	0.75mi
315 SE Drive Martin Luther King Junior Ave Mulberry, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,275	$2.12	24d	1	1.09mi
807 NW 1st Ave Mulberry, FL	2.0	1.0	832	$1,675	$2.01	15d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    listed $199,000 Active
16. 1989-05-01
    soldstatus $16,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,696 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,696 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,255
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,696
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,540
• − Management: −$1,540
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,453
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$829
• After-tax cash flow: $826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Mulberry

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #5311

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 24,892
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,892
• Household income: $65,710
• Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.08%
• Current HPI: 349.7266
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1106.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+39.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,696 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.