499 Notch Ln #3

Branson West, MO 65737

$175,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 867 sqft · Built 1993 · Condo · Active · 250 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,201/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-76/mo
• Annual: $-907/yr
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.85%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-907/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (31.4% below list).
• It's been on market 250 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#830 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D, schools F.
• Reeds Spring R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #182 of 324 in MO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 342 active listings in the ZIP; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.3% in Branson West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 250 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?