499 Notch Ln #3 · Branson West, MO 65737

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 867 sqft · Condo · 250 Days on market

Built 1993 ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this fully furnished 2 bedroom, 2 bath condo at 499 Notch Lane #3 in Branson West, perfectly situated just minutes from Silver Dollar City and in one of the most popular vacation rental areas in the Ozarks. This nightly rental-approved property offers an open living area, updated kitchen with stylish cabinetry, spacious bedrooms, and a private covered deck with peaceful wooded views and ample boat parking. Thoughtfully decorated and move-in ready, it's ideal as an investment, a personal getaway, or even a full-time residence. The condo comes fully furnished, including linens, and has been updated within the last 18 months with new furniture, appliances, and multiple TVs. Community amenities include access to a swimming, walking trails, picnic areas, playground, and a catch-and-release lake, while COA dues cover cable, trash, and common area maintenance for added convenience. This condo has an unbeatable location, inviting interior, and strong rental potential.

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Updated kitchen
• Ample boat parking

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE COVERED DECK
• PEACEFUL WOODED VIEWS
• AMPLE BOAT PARKING
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• STRONG RENTAL POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-907/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (31.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.3% in Branson West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#830 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D, schools F.
• Reeds Spring R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #182 of 324 in MO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 341 active listings in the ZIP; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 250 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $120,092 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 250 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.85%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-27,148
• Equity at exit: $32,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-24,819
• Equity at exit: $26,552

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65737

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,201 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $404/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,297

Max offer price $161,648

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: trashcable
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 250 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 249 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 248 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $175,000 Active 245 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $175,000 Active 244 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,000 Active 243 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $175,000 Active 242 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active 241 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $175,000 Active 240 DOM
10. 2026-03-10
    price $175,000 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    Discover this fully furnished 2 bedroom, 2 bath condo at 499 Notch Lane #3 in Branson West, perfectly situated just minutes from Silver Dollar City and in one of the most popular vacation rental areas in the Ozarks. This nightly rental-approved property offers an open living area, updated kitchen with stylish cabinetry, spacious bedrooms, and a private covered deck with peaceful wooded views and ample boat parking. Thoughtfully decorated and move-in ready, it's ideal as an investment, a personal getaway, or even a full-time residence. The condo comes fully furnished, including linens, and has been updated within the last 18 months with new furniture, appliances, and multiple TVs. Community amenities include access to a swimming, walking trails, picnic areas, playground, and a catch-and-release lake, while COA dues cover cable, trash, and common area maintenance for added convenience. This condo has an unbeatable location, inviting interior, and strong rental potential.

11. 2025-11-12
    price $181,000 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    Discover this fully furnished 2 bedroom, 2 bath condo at 499 Notch Lane #3 in Branson West, perfectly situated just minutes from Silver Dollar City and in one of the most popular vacation rental areas in the Ozarks. This nightly rental-approved property offers an open living area, updated kitchen with stylish cabinetry, spacious bedrooms, and a private covered deck with peaceful wooded views and ample boat parking. Thoughtfully decorated and move-in ready, it's ideal as an investment, a personal getaway, or even a full-time residence. The condo comes fully furnished, including linens, and has been updated within the last 18 months with new furniture, appliances, and multiple TVs. Community amenities include access to a swimming, walking trails, picnic areas, playground, and a catch-and-release lake, while COA dues cover cable, trash, and common area maintenance for added convenience. This condo has an unbeatable location, inviting interior, and strong rental potential.

12. 2025-10-02
    listed $183,000 Active 983-char remark

    Show marketing remark (983 chars)

    Discover this fully furnished 2 bedroom, 2 bath condo at 499 Notch Lane #3 in Branson West, perfectly situated just minutes from Silver Dollar City and in one of the most popular vacation rental areas in the Ozarks. This nightly rental-approved property offers an open living area, updated kitchen with stylish cabinetry, spacious bedrooms, and a private covered deck with peaceful wooded views and ample boat parking. Thoughtfully decorated and move-in ready, it's ideal as an investment, a personal getaway, or even a full-time residence. The condo comes fully furnished, including linens, and has been updated within the last 18 months with new furniture, appliances, and multiple TVs. Community amenities include access to a swimming, walking trails, picnic areas, playground, and a catch-and-release lake, while COA dues cover cable, trash, and common area maintenance for added convenience. This condo has an unbeatable location, inviting interior, and strong rental potential.

13. 2018-12-20
    soldstatus
14. 2017-05-15
    soldstatus
15. 1993-06-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $404 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,698 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,293/yr (+$108/mo · 320.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$404
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,153
• − Management: −$1,153
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$4,067
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$976
• After-tax cash flow: $69/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Reeds Spring R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2926160
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,158
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5819
• State rank: #182 of 324 in MO

Livability — Branson West

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #830
• US rank: #24583

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing D Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,279

Population outlook (Stone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,147 people
• By 2030: 26,405 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 22,762 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 19,706 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 14,742 · -47.6%
• By 2100: 10,832 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Stone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+49.2 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.17%
• Current HPI: 239.032
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $175,000 SOMO
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $181,000 SOMO
• 2025-10-02 Listed $183,000 SOMO
• 2018-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-05-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $404 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.