4845 W Lagoon Rd

West Farmington, OH 44491

$125,000C+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,144 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,087/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $87/mo
• Annual: $1,047/yr
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.99%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (13.0% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,067 in OH) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools F.
• Bristol Local (rural): math 61% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #210 of 656 in OH (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $125k implies a 212% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.