4845 W Lagoon Rd · West Farmington, OH 44491

$125,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1971 0.64 ac lot $109/sqft · 27% below area Est $170k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all investors!! Check out this 3 bedroom 1.5 bath ranch located in Plalan Lakes. Features include a large family w/ FP, formal dining room, and a laundry room. Additional features include a deck, detached 2 car garage and even an attached carport. All of this is situated on over a half acre! There's plenty of potential, and demo has already been completed!! Call today for a private showing!

Key facts

• Over a half acre lot
• Updates to roof
• Ranch style home

Tags

• RANCH STYLE HOME
• OVER A HALF ACRE LOT
• UPDATES TO WINDOWS
• UPDATES TO ROOF
• UPDATES TO ELECTRICAL
• UPDATES TO SEPTIC

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Updated/remodeled condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawl space foundation; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Garage(s) on property; Carport (detached)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile (one bedroom); Laminate flooring (other bedrooms, family room, dining room)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced-air heating with gas and heat pump options; One gas fireplace with insert
• Interior features: Recessed lighting; Double-pane and low-emissivity windows with screens
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,067 in OH) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools F.
• Bristol Local (rural): math 61% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #210 of 656 in OH (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $125k implies a 212% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $108,728 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.99%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,269
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -26.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4544 Lakeview Rd	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,176 (+3%)	3mo	$172,000	$146	78
4810 Hickory Rd	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-8%)	3mo	$227,000	$215	72
4840 West Rd NW	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+13%)	22mo	$147,000	$113	57
4491 Hill Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	11mo	$173,411	$139	56
4355 N Lake Rd	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,250 (+9%)	18mo	$230,000	$184	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.71% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $25,344
• Equity at exit: $61,278

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $76,671
• Equity at exit: $98,586

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44491

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,087 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $769/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $977

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $125,000 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $125,000 Contingent 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $125,000 Contingent 17 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $125,000 Contingent 16 DOM
5. 2026-05-15
   listed $125,000 Active 674-char remark
6. 2020-11-05
   historical 401-char remark

   Show marketing remark (401 chars)

   Calling all investors!! Check out this 3 bedroom 1.5 bath ranch located in Plalan Lakes. Features include a large family w/ FP, formal dining room, and a laundry room. Additional features include a deck, detached 2 car garage and even an attached carport. All of this is situated on over a half acre! There's plenty of potential, and demo has already been completed!! Call today for a private showing!

7. 2020-11-05
   listed Contingent 401-char remark

   Show marketing remark (401 chars)

   Calling all investors!! Check out this 3 bedroom 1.5 bath ranch located in Plalan Lakes. Features include a large family w/ FP, formal dining room, and a laundry room. Additional features include a deck, detached 2 car garage and even an attached carport. All of this is situated on over a half acre! There's plenty of potential, and demo has already been completed!! Call today for a private showing!

8. 2020-10-26
   soldstatus $40,000 Closed 401-char remark

   Show marketing remark (401 chars)

   Calling all investors!! Check out this 3 bedroom 1.5 bath ranch located in Plalan Lakes. Features include a large family w/ FP, formal dining room, and a laundry room. Additional features include a deck, detached 2 car garage and even an attached carport. All of this is situated on over a half acre! There's plenty of potential, and demo has already been completed!! Call today for a private showing!

9. 2020-10-26
   soldstatus $40,000 Closed 401-char remark

   Show marketing remark (401 chars)

   Calling all investors!! Check out this 3 bedroom 1.5 bath ranch located in Plalan Lakes. Features include a large family w/ FP, formal dining room, and a laundry room. Additional features include a deck, detached 2 car garage and even an attached carport. All of this is situated on over a half acre! There's plenty of potential, and demo has already been completed!! Call today for a private showing!

10. 2020-09-22
    historical Contingent 401-char remark

    Show marketing remark (401 chars)

    Calling all investors!! Check out this 3 bedroom 1.5 bath ranch located in Plalan Lakes. Features include a large family w/ FP, formal dining room, and a laundry room. Additional features include a deck, detached 2 car garage and even an attached carport. All of this is situated on over a half acre! There's plenty of potential, and demo has already been completed!! Call today for a private showing!

11. 2020-08-27
    listed $39,900 Active 401-char remark

    Show marketing remark (401 chars)

    Calling all investors!! Check out this 3 bedroom 1.5 bath ranch located in Plalan Lakes. Features include a large family w/ FP, formal dining room, and a laundry room. Additional features include a deck, detached 2 car garage and even an attached carport. All of this is situated on over a half acre! There's plenty of potential, and demo has already been completed!! Call today for a private showing!

12. 2020-04-24
    historical
13. 2020-04-17
    price $36,800
14. 2020-03-24
    price $38,700
15. 2020-01-16
    price $40,700
16. 2019-12-17
    price $42,800
17. 2019-09-11
    listed $45,000 Active
18. 2019-09-10
    historical
19. 2019-07-31
    listed $45,000 Active
20. 2003-07-11
    soldstatus $85,000
21. 2003-06-12
    soldstatus $79,900
22. 2003-06-12
    soldstatus $79,900
23. 2003-04-01
    listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $769 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,360 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$590/yr (+$49/mo · 76.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$769
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,044
• − Management: −$1,044
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,073
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$257
• After-tax cash flow: $1,305/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bristol Local
• NCES district ID: 3905011
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $55,845
• Composite: 55.34/100
• National rank: #1256
• State rank: #210 of 656 in OH

Livability — West Farmington

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1067
• US rank: #21315

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Trumbull · 193,293 people
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren, OH
• Population (ZIP): 3,683
• Household income: $63,750
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3.6

Population outlook (Trumbull County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,696 people
• By 2030: 184,015 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 166,810 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 149,857 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 115,769 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 83,617 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Polish 29% Subsaharan African 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · German/W. Germanic 43% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trumbull

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.2% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.71%
• Current HPI: 246.5022
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+56.4% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-05-26 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2026-05-15 Listed $125,000 MLSNOW
• 2020-11-05 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2020-11-05 Listed — MLSNOW
• 2020-10-26 Sold (MLS) $40,000 MLSNOW
• 2020-10-26 Sold (MLS) $40,000 MLSNOW
• 2020-09-22 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2020-08-27 Listed $39,900 MLSNOW
• 2020-04-24 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2020-04-17 Price Changed $36,800 MLSNOW
• 2020-03-24 Price Changed $38,700 MLSNOW
• 2020-01-16 Price Changed $40,700 MLSNOW
• 2019-12-17 Price Changed $42,800 MLSNOW
• 2019-09-11 Listed $45,000 MLSNOW
• 2019-09-10 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2019-07-31 Listed $45,000 MLSNOW
• 2003-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2003-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 2003-06-12 Sold (MLS) $79,900 MLSNOW
• 2003-04-01 Listed $79,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

-4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $769 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.