10902 County Road 414

Merkel, TX 79536

$150,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Active Option Contract · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,658/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $346/mo
• Annual: $4,151/yr
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.88%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $346 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#517 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Merkel ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #460 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Merkel El (math 53% / reading 44%, grade D, #950 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 565 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jones County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.3% in Merkel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.