10902 County Road 414 · Merkel, TX 79536

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · Manufactured public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1999 2.50 ac lot Est $208k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great potential on 2.5 acres. The possibilities are limitless. Home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bath. Storage shed outside.

Key facts

• 2.5 acre property
• Large storage shed
• 2.5 acre lot

Tags

• 2.5 ACRE PROPERTY
• LARGE STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing terms: Exclusive Right To Sell; Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Accepting Cash and Conventional financing; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property; Built in 1999; One story
• Construction: Year built 1999
• Exterior features: Approximately 2.5-acre lot; Lot will not subdivide; Directions: FM 707 N, turn left onto Co Rd 141, house on left

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on level 1 (approx. 10 x 14)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floor plan; One level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $346 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.3% in Merkel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#517 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Merkel ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #460 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Merkel El (math 53% / reading 44%, grade D, #950 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 565 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jones County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.88%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,384
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17098 County Road 467	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-14%)	23mo	$179,900	$148	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,294
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $26,292
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79536

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,658 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,377/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,220

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $431	-5% $388	+0% $346	+5% $303	+10% $261
Rent	-10% $215	-5% $280	+0% $346	+5% $411	+10% $477
Rate	-1.0pp $421	-0.5pp $384	base $346	+0.5pp $307	+1.0pp $268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $150,000 Active Option Contract 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $150,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $150,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active Option Contract 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active Option Contract 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active Option Contract 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active Option Contract 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    historical Active Option Contract 957-char remark
18. 2026-05-09
    listed $150,000 Active 957-char remark
19. 2025-03-19
    price $125,000
20. 2025-02-12
    listed $135,000 Active
21. 2024-08-08
    soldstatus
22. 2024-07-31
    soldstatus Closed

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Great potential on 2.5 acres. The possibilities are limitless. Home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bath. Storage shed outside.

23. 2024-06-28
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Great potential on 2.5 acres. The possibilities are limitless. Home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bath. Storage shed outside.

24. 2024-06-25
    price $60,000

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Great potential on 2.5 acres. The possibilities are limitless. Home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bath. Storage shed outside.

25. 2024-06-20
    listed $55,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Great potential on 2.5 acres. The possibilities are limitless. Home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bath. Storage shed outside.

26. 2008-03-26
    soldstatus
27. 2003-01-07
    soldstatus
28. 2001-04-12
    soldstatus
29. 2001-04-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,377 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,368/yr (+$114/mo · 99.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,377
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,592
• − Management: −$1,592
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $1,819
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$437
• After-tax cash flow: $3,714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merkel ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830340
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,594
• Composite: 32.22/100
• National rank: #5774
• State rank: #460 of 826 in TX

Livability — Merkel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #517
• US rank: #10181

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,080
• Population (ZIP): 6,080

Population outlook (Jones County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,845 people
• By 2030: 20,213 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 21,446 · +8.1%
• By 2050: 22,499 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 23,272 · +17.3%
• By 2100: 20,420 · +2.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jones

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.2) · D 13.1% · R 86.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -46.1pp · 2024: -73.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.2 2020: R+69.1 2016: R+65.4 2012: R+54.5 2008: R+46.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.40%
• Current HPI: 203.6833
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+172.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-05-18 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-12 Listed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-07-31 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-06-28 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-06-25 Price Changed $60,000 NTREIS
• 2024-06-20 Listed $55,000 NTREIS
• 2008-03-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-01-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-04-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-04-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,377 · +86.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.