12206 Balta Rd

Brandermill, VA 23838

$535,000D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,800 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,806
• Tax + insurance: −$567
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$945
• Net cashflow: $182/mo
• Annual: $2,189/yr
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.46%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $149,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $535k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $450k (15.9% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $450k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#94 in VA, #3,055 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Spring Run Elementary (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #403 of 1,108 statewide, top 37%, 872 students, 23% FRL); Bailey Bridge Middle (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C+, #218 of 342 statewide, top 65%, 1,459 students, 33% FRL); Manchester High (math 61% / reading 67%, grade B-, #220 of 319 statewide, top 70%, 2,188 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $535k implies a 1017% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.7% in Brandermill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.