12206 Balta Rd · Brandermill, VA 23838

$535,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2005 2.00 ac lot $191/sqft · 12% above area Est $477k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 12206 Balta RD, a beautifully updated home tucked away on a private, oversized cul-de-sac 2 ACRE lot. Set back with a tree-lined approach, the exterior shines with fresh landscaping, stacked stone beds, low-maintenance vinyl siding, energy-efficient vinyl windows, and a dimensional shingle roof. Outdoor living is a true highlight, featuring a freshly painted rear deck, expansive paver patio with retaining wall & a large fenced backyard complete with a 27 ft POOL (18,000 gallons) with a newer 10 yr. liner (2025) and brand-new pump and sand filter (2026), perfect for the upcoming summer! Inside, the home has been fully refreshed with fresh paint throughout (2026), updated lig

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Parking
• Pool

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Unpaved driveway
• Security: Insulated doors (improved entry security/efficiency)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Two-story single-family home; Resale condition; Shingle roof; Vinyl siding and frame construction; Drywall interior
• Construction: Approximate year built; Frame construction with vinyl siding; Drywall interior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck with access from living room; Front and rear porch; Outdoor lighting; Storage shed; Shed; Fenced backyard; Unpaved driveway; Cul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless-steel appliances; Electric cooking / smooth cooktop; Oven and range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Backsplash; Eat-in kitchen and kitchen island; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with vaulted ceiling, lighted ceiling fan, walk-in closet and ensuite (second level); Bedroom 2 with walk-in closet, new carpet and LED lighting (second level); Bedroom 3 with new carpet, LED lighting and double-door closet (second level); Bedroom 4 with new carpet, LED lighting and closet (second level)
• Flooring: Wood (hardwoods) in living/dining areas; Tile; Partially carpeted (new carpet in bedrooms)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; One full bath on second level with tub and shower; Double vanity in primary bath
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating and electric; Zoned system; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Built-in bookcases; Breakfast area / nook; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Double vanity in bath; Eat-in kitchen; Fireplace (gas); Granite counters; Kitchen island; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Wired for data; High-speed internet ready; Walk-in closet(s); Insulated doors; Thermal windows
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room on first floor with Samsung washer and dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $535k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $450k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $450k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.7% in Brandermill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#94 in VA, #3,055 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Spring Run Elementary (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #403 of 1,108 statewide, top 37%, 872 students, 23% FRL); Bailey Bridge Middle (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C+, #218 of 342 statewide, top 65%, 1,459 students, 33% FRL); Manchester High (math 61% / reading 67%, grade B-, #220 of 319 statewide, top 70%, 2,188 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $535k implies a 1017% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $450,000 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.46%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $477,390
• List price: $535,000
• Delta: 12.07%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12207 Balta Rd	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,674 (-4%)	8mo	$472,500	$177	82
11906 Carters Garden Ter	0.43mi	4/3.5	2,913 (+4%)	4mo	$539,975	$185	66
12912 Carters Hill Pl	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,737 (-2%)	8mo	$550,000	$201	64
13307 Carters Valley Rd	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,760 (-1%)	22mo	$516,000	$187	64
13001 Carters Garden Dr	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,975 (+6%)	6mo	$550,000	$185	61
13000 Carters Hill Ct	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,756 (-2%)	22mo	$505,000	$183	58
11930 Carters Garden Ter	0.30mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,841 (+2%)	22mo	$500,000	$176	56
12400 Hulsey Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,576 (-8%)	22mo	$475,000	$184	54
11936 Carters Garden Ter	0.27mi	4/3.5	3,150 (+12%)	15mo	$560,000	$178	50
13307 Degonia Way	0.44mi	4/2.5	3,203 (+14%)	8mo	$749,000	$234	48
13419 Carters Creek Ter	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,397 (-14%)	11mo	$495,000	$207	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-75,206
• Equity at exit: $79,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-51,062
• Equity at exit: $46,257

Cash invested: $149,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23838

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,806
• Tax from tax record: −$344 /mo · $4,129/yr
• Insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$945
• Net cashflow: $182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,269

Max offer price $535,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $485	-5% $334	+0% $182	+5% $31	+10% $-120
Rent	-10% $-173	-5% $5	+0% $182	+5% $360	+10% $538
Rate	-1.0pp $452	-0.5pp $318	base $182	+0.5pp $44	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $133,750
• Closing costs: $16,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12900 River Rd Chesterfield, VA	4.0	3.0	2993	$4,500	$1.50	45d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-18
   price $535,000 2110-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $550,000 Active 2110-char remark
3. 2026-04-29
   historical $550,000 2110-char remark
4. 2004-05-27
   soldstatus $47,900
5. 1998-10-29
   soldstatus $490,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,129 · $344/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,387 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$258/yr (+$22/mo · 6.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,968
• − Property taxes: −$4,129
• − Insurance: −$2,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,320
• − Management: −$4,320
• − Depreciation: −$15,564
• Taxable loss: −$6,976
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,674
• After-tax cash flow: $3,863/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Brandermill

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #94
• US rank: #3055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 56,364
• Population (ZIP): 17,213

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Korean 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.94%
• Current HPI: 257.6855
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+9.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $535,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $550,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-29 Coming Soon $550,000 CVRMLS
• 2004-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $47,900 Public Records
• 1998-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $490,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,129 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.